Chart of the Day: Is Gold About to Get a Monetary Blast (Off)?

Watch gold as it pushes up against the downtrend line. Any hints from the Fed of QE3 could send it “to the Moon, Alice!” The Fed rejoining the party and the LTRO2 coming next month could be an explosive mix

On the Collapse of the Shanghai Composite

Shanghai’s channel surfing Panda bears are speaking with a little higher pitch this weekend after getting their ‘hood caught in a vicious squeeze and reversal. The stock index has bounced 8.7 percent off its January 6th lows after falling 31 percent from last April’s 12-month high. The Shanghai was down 39 percent from its August ‘09 post-crash high before reversing earlier this month. Hugh Hendry nailed it

Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires futures traders to identify whether they have an underlying business interest (commercials) or if they don’t (non-commercials). Here are seven take-aways from the most recent report that covered the week through January 17th

Euro Races Higher

The euro is racing higher after initially gapping lower in Asia on indications that the private sector involvement in Greece had hit another stumbling block ahead of today’s EU finance minister summit. It has moved above the $1.30 area in the European morning, for the first time since January 4. There are a few consideration prompting the continuation of the short-covering advance that began last week

Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations

The brief study presented here shows that over the past 60 days, the Canadian dollar has been more correlated with the S&P 500 than most currencies we looked at, and is also highly correlated with the euro, though in line with most of the other major currencies. It correlation with crude oil is considerably weaker than with the S&P 500 or the euro, but is also in line with most of the other currencies we looked at

Marginalization of Western Europe

US money markets have dramatically cut their exposure to European bank paper. This has been widely reported and has intensified the dollar funding needs of some European, especially French and Italian banks.

When we talk about European banks needing to secure dollar funding, where are they getting those dollars

Market Tone Remains Upbeat after Euro Zone Auctions

Dollar continues to trade on the back foot as markets maintain upbeat tone; strong EZ auction results. Soft Australian December employment reports supports Feb rate cut; BoC likely to remain on hold in H1. SELIC rates likely to fall but the government may act to stem BRL appreciation; Philippines CB cuts by 25bp

Here’s how much Austrian banks are on the sovereign debt hook for

According to Austrian newspaper Der Standard, Austrian banks had 18.1 billion euros of exposure to foreign sovereign debt at the end of October. The debt to which the banks were most exposed were Polish, Italian, German and Hungarian sovereign debt

Fitch planning to downgrade six European sovereign credits

Swiss daily newspaper Tagesanzeiger is reporting that Fitch, the ratings agency, is about to downgrade six European countries because of the sovereign debt crisis. The paper says that six euro countries were put on ratings review in December and that all of them are likely to be downgraded

Dollar Softer on Better Risk Backdrop

Dollar is trading on its back foot following solid EZ debt auctions; IMF seeks to increase lending capacity. The key issue today is whether North American players will sell into euro bounce; 20dma seen at $1.2875. UK Claimant count better than expected, US production data in focus; Chinese equities lower on the day

Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited

As of yesterday the 60-day correlation stands near 0.78 and the 30-day correlation has fallen from 0.81 in the middle of last month to 0.65. This gives additional evidence of some fracturing of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that has been such an important characteristic of the investment climate

Correction Tuesday?

China’s slew of economic data came in better than expected this coupled with successful bill auctions by Spain, Greece and Belgium and a very strong German ZEW (-21 v -53.8) is rekindling the appetite for risk today. The euro is up over a cent and is running into resistance near $1.28. More generally, major and emerging market currencies are trading broadly higher against the greenback. Equities and commodities are higher