Credit Writedowns » Markets

Majors Trading Flat ahead of the ECB

BBH — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:35:29 +0000

The dollar is paring back some of its recent losses, with currencies mostly range bound, ahead of the ECB. The EuroStoxx 600 is currently up 0.25%, with bank shares up 0.8%; S&P 500 futures are essentially flat. Euro zone sovereign 10-year yields are mixed; Portuguese 10-year down 17bps, Spanish 10-year up 7bps

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Dollar Mostly Softer as Greek Deal Inches Closer

BBH — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 12:43:31 +0000

The dollar is extending its recent losses on hopes that Greece is inching closer to a deal that would ensure the next bailout payment, though the major currencies remain in relatively tight ranges

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Chart of the day: 2012 sovereign risk compression

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 02:00:35 +0000

Great data from Bespoke. Looks like Portugal is the odd man out as the only government in which its CDS spreads have widened this year

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Has the Euro Broken Out?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 01:30:06 +0000

Given market positioning and the anticipated long-term repo operation at the end of the month, it is tempting to see this move above $1.3250 as a breakout. Is it a breakout

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Intervention Risks Rise In Latin America

Win Thin — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:30:50 +0000

FX intervention is certainly in the air this week for Latin America. Brazil stands out as the most aggressive, of course, as the central bank intervened in the forward market Friday and in the spot market Monday

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Tuesday’s Surprises from Australia and Japan

BBH — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:30:27 +0000

The dollar is mixed against the majors and EMs but largely remains confined to recent ranges. The EuroStoxx 600 slid for a second straight day, currently down 0.5%; MSCI Asia index holds recent highs. Demand in Greek bill sale eased slightly and refinancing costs moved higher; Portugal’s 10-year up 22bp

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An Update on Italian Sovereign Outperformance

Marc Chandler — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 17:40:32 +0000

Ahead of the next LTRO at the end of the month, Spanish and Italian bonds may begin consolidating after the large moves seen over the past month. The scope for Italian out performance in the month ahead appears somewhat more limited than over the past month. Indeed, the 5.5% yield level on the Italy's 10-year generic bond may prove a bit sticky. It also corresponds to trend line on the weekly charts, drawn off the yield low of 3.7% in mid-Oct 2010. Spain's 10-year yield decline is slowing as it slips through the 5% threshold

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Euro Dragged Lower on Greece Uncertainty

BBH — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:35:57 +0000

The dollar looks set to begin the week higher against the majors and EMs over lack of progress in Greece. European stocks are down 0.6%, with the EuroStoxx 600 trimming its 6-month high; EZ banks down 1.3%. German manufacturing orders higher in December; soft Australian retail sales support further RBA cuts

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Jobs data highlight huge potential for capital loss in Treasuries

Marshall Auerback — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 20:45:36 +0000

I have been making a big deal about strength in the household series of employment and the trend in IUCs. These are statistical series that do not get revised out of recognition. They often tell the tale at turning points. Given that past household survey employment and IUC trends have persisted, the current bond market rally will be even more insane and the stock market will probably continue to work higher, even though the favorable seasonable window has closed. I expect the recent trend of large outflows from stocks to bonds over the last year (and last five years) to be reversed in 2012. Not only are interest rates at generational lows but many high-quality companies are yielding (at 2.5% or even better) well above the yield on the 10-year U.S. note

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The Unlikely Bull Market

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:30:46 +0000

This is not the time to be fully invested but neither is it the time to be side lined. We are in a nervous market where great opportunities present themselves at regular intervals. We recommend holding 25-50% in cash or cash like instruments (depending on your risk profile) which can be deployed at short notice when those opportunities arise

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Friday’s Thoughts and Seven Investment Themes

Marc Chandler — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:41:28 +0000

First, the trajectory of monetary policy in the US, Europe, China and Japan is in a more accommodative direction. Second, the underlying economies are showing preliminary signs of stabilizing. Third, the combination of easing monetary conditions and economic stabilization has boost demand for higher risk assets. In addition to major equity markets, emerging markets off to a strong start. Funds that exited the emerging markets in Q4 11 return. This has helped fueled currency and asset (bonds and stocks) appreciation

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Dollar Mixed as Spain raises 4.5 bn euros in bond auction

BBH — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:30:28 +0000

The dollar is currently mixed against the majors and EMs as asset markets consolidate near recent highs. Spain raised 4.5 bn euros in a bond auction the upper end of their desired range. On the data front, Australia’s December trade surplus exceeded expectations increasing to A$1.71bln in December from a revised A$1.34 bln in November (was A$1.38 bln). Chinese markets outperformed the region closing nearly 2% higher, but the news flow was mixed, and even slightly contradictory

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European Sovereign Supply and LTRO

Marc Chandler — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 03:00:00 +0000

The headline story in the Financial Times today is that "Banks set to double crisis loans from the ECB". The report says that "several" large banks from the euro zone told the FT that they "could double or triple" their takes at the

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 Up 4.36% in January

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 02:30:54 +0000

Interesting couple of charts on the S&P500. The top shows the narrowing upward channel in which the index has traded since the beginning of the year relative to the wider medium-term channel. The collapse in volatility was the direct result of the massive liquidity injections of the ECB’s LTRO program, in our opinion

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Dollar Heading Lower after Constructive Outcome of EU Summit

BBH — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 12:30:06 +0000

Dollar is heading lower after the EU summit saw 25 of the 27 nations endorse the new fiscal compact. EuroStoxx 600 is nearly 1% higher as a result, banks up nearly 1.3%; MSCI Asia Pacific index up 0.7%. Japanese data showed a surge in December production; Germany’s Dec. job boost offset by retail sales

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Dollar Pops Back

BBH — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:30:21 +0000

Dollar is broadly stronger against the majors and EM currencies after Greece rejected calls for direct budget control. Asian stocks fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index down 0.9%; EuroStoxx 600 is currently down 0.7%. Economic data saw Spanish Q4 GDP contract, EZ confidence rise less than expected; US personal income

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Greek private sector involvement: So what?

Marc Chandler — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 01:10:21 +0000

The market has been focused on the negotiations over the private sector involvement in reducing Greece’s debt burden. Yet, the PSI is so yesterday. There are many moving parts and the PSI, which has dominated the market’s attention, is being superseded by other developments, even if an agreement is still not in hand

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On how Portugal is the next Greece

Marc Chandler — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:46:06 +0000

Portugal appears to be headed down that same road. While we have warned in the past of risks that Portugal would need a second aid package, it is only since S&P joined the other major rating agencies on January 13 that more market participants have come over to this view

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Dollar Falls on Fed, Potential Greek Debt Deal

BBH — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 12:30:00 +0000

Dollar extended losses overnight and into the European session following the Fed’s dovish policy stance. Global stocks are broadly high off the back of Fed and Greek debt deal; EuroStoxx up 0.6%, banks up 0.7%. Economic data saw German consumer confidence improve; UK’s CBI retails sale retrenched in January

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Will the ECB Take a Haircut?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 22:30:08 +0000

The ECB's hand though could be forced if there is a credit event, a non-voluntary debt restructuring. Under such conditions, it would be more difficult to show some bond holders (ECB) preferential treatment over other holders of the same bond. This warns of potential knock-on effects of a hard restructuring

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Chart of the Day: Gold reacts to FOMC rate easing

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 18:00:19 +0000

The Fed has come out 9-1 in favor of rate easing i.e. capping medium-term treasury rates. The interesting bit is that while the Fed did the exact same thing in August out to two years, this announcement takes permanent zero out to nearly three years. That's rate easing. Some people call it financial repression. And it's gold bullish

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Developments continue to be bullish for Mexico

Win Thin — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 17:30:12 +0000

Given what we see as a basically hands off policy with regards to the exchange rate when MXN is appreciating, we see more potential upside for MXN compared to, say, BRL, where Brazilian authorities are clearly going to work against further currency strength. Others in Latin America are concerned with currency strength, including Colombia. As such, going long MXN vs. BRL or COP would be a good alternative too. On the other side, Banxico has installed circuit-breakers to help boost peso liquidity during times of stresses as part of an effort to prevent disorderly downside movement in the peso

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Dollar Bid

Marc Chandler — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:35:36 +0000

The dollar's downside momentum has faded since the start of the week and short-term momentum traders have to adjust. There does not seem to be a precipitating factor. The German IFO was mostly better than expected and while the UK Q4 GDP was off 0.2% rather -0.1% may could have been a factor, but sterling is holding in better. Key support is seen for sterling near $1.5520. Initial euro support is seen near $1.2950 now. The Fed meeting will be of interest of course, but it is unlikely to a major factor for the dollar

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Not Too Late for Turn Around Tuesday

Marc Chandler — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:30:24 +0000

Many observers will posit the euro's resilience today to the flash PMI reading for January where both the manufacturing and service sector readings were above expectations. The flash manufacturing diffusion index stood at 48.7 vs 47.3 consensus and 46.9 in December. The service sector index is at 50.5 vs 49.0 consensus and 48.3 in December. Yet in the forward looking components like new orders remain weak

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Chart of the Day: Is Gold About to Get a Monetary Blast (Off)?

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 20:30:03 +0000

Watch gold as it pushes up against the downtrend line. Any hints from the Fed of QE3 could send it “to the Moon, Alice!” The Fed rejoining the party and the LTRO2 coming next month could be an explosive mix

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On the Collapse of the Shanghai Composite

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Shanghai’s channel surfing Panda bears are speaking with a little higher pitch this weekend after getting their ‘hood caught in a vicious squeeze and reversal. The stock index has bounced 8.7 percent off its January 6th lows after falling 31 percent from last April’s 12-month high. The Shanghai was down 39 percent from its August ‘09 post-crash high before reversing earlier this month. Hugh Hendry nailed it

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Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX

Marc Chandler — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 14:00:00 +0000

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires futures traders to identify whether they have an underlying business interest (commercials) or if they don't (non-commercials). Here are seven take-aways from the most recent report that covered the week through January 17th

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Euro Races Higher

Marc Chandler — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 12:30:28 +0000

The euro is racing higher after initially gapping lower in Asia on indications that the private sector involvement in Greece had hit another stumbling block ahead of today's EU finance minister summit. It has moved above the $1.30 area in the European morning, for the first time since January 4. There are a few consideration prompting the continuation of the short-covering advance that began last week

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Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations

Marc Chandler — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:00:28 +0000

The brief study presented here shows that over the past 60 days, the Canadian dollar has been more correlated with the S&P 500 than most currencies we looked at, and is also highly correlated with the euro, though in line with most of the other major currencies. It correlation with crude oil is considerably weaker than with the S&P 500 or the euro, but is also in line with most of the other currencies we looked at

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Marginalization of Western Europe

Marc Chandler — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 18:35:20 +0000

US money markets have dramatically cut their exposure to European bank paper. This has been widely reported and has intensified the dollar funding needs of some European, especially French and Italian banks. When we talk about European banks needing to secure dollar funding, where are they getting those dollars

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Market Tone Remains Upbeat after Euro Zone Auctions

BBH — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 12:30:56 +0000

Dollar continues to trade on the back foot as markets maintain upbeat tone; strong EZ auction results. Soft Australian December employment reports supports Feb rate cut; BoC likely to remain on hold in H1. SELIC rates likely to fall but the government may act to stem BRL appreciation; Philippines CB cuts by 25bp

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Here’s how much Austrian banks are on the sovereign debt hook for

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:45:04 +0000

According to Austrian newspaper Der Standard, Austrian banks had 18.1 billion euros of exposure to foreign sovereign debt at the end of October. The debt to which the banks were most exposed were Polish, Italian, German and Hungarian sovereign debt

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Fitch planning to downgrade six European sovereign credits

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:30:43 +0000

Swiss daily newspaper Tagesanzeiger is reporting that Fitch, the ratings agency, is about to downgrade six European countries because of the sovereign debt crisis. The paper says that six euro countries were put on ratings review in December and that all of them are likely to be downgraded

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Dollar Softer on Better Risk Backdrop

BBH — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 12:45:43 +0000

Dollar is trading on its back foot following solid EZ debt auctions; IMF seeks to increase lending capacity. The key issue today is whether North American players will sell into euro bounce; 20dma seen at $1.2875. UK Claimant count better than expected, US production data in focus; Chinese equities lower on the day

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Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited

Marc Chandler — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:25:10 +0000

As of yesterday the 60-day correlation stands near 0.78 and the 30-day correlation has fallen from 0.81 in the middle of last month to 0.65. This gives additional evidence of some fracturing of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that has been such an important characteristic of the investment climate

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Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Related Posts No related posts.