Morgan Stanley’s piece on Treasuries Priced for Perfection…for Now! is pretty bearish. The basic gist is that while the ten-year represents fair value today, because inflation expectations have become unanchored, Morgan Stanley expects the yield to rise from 3.3% to 5.5%. That’s a disaster of 1994 proportions. Obviously, given some of my recent comments, this [...]
Markets's archives
Morgan Stanley expects 10-year yields to rise 220 bps in 2010
Nov
232 views
Gross isn’t buying corporates, high yield or equities even with zero rates
Nov
I pick up Bill Gross where I left him on Friday. He said in his monthly newsletter that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at zero percent through 2010. But, he is not willing to stick his neck out in a liquidity seeking return kind of way even though this is what reflation [...]
960 views
Marc Faber: "I don’t think that you’ll see gold below $1,000 per ounce probably ever"
Nov
Marc Faber is in a bullish mindset, particularly on gold. In a wide-ranging interview with CNBC TV-18 in India, Faber talked about where he sees markets headed and why he thinks gold will never drop below $1,000 an ounce.
Private sector contracting while public sector expanding
This is the frame that Marc Faber puts on recent events [...]
1,447 views
Bill Gross: Fed on hold through 2010
Nov
Bill Gross of Pimco spoke on Bloomberg with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. He thinks the U.S. is entering a new normal of low nominal GDP growth. However, financial bets have been made on 6-7 percent nominal GDP (think pension liabilities). Unless we get 5-6% nominal GDP growth debt deflation and deleveraging dynamics (the D-process)will [...]
610 views
Get in the market before it’s too late
Nov
Just arrived in my inbox:
If you want to know what market momentum is all about, here you have it. Get in now to profit.
Sources
Bill Gross Calls High-Yield Corporate Debt `Overvalued’: Video (video here) – Bloomberg
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Whitney Tilson: "A pullback of some sort is likely"
Nov
Tilson is saying what I have been saying, namely that March saw an increased number of attractive buys, but most of these are now fully priced. As a result, he is selling equities – even building up his net short positions.
Unlike bear turned bull Richard Bernstein, Tilson says that after a huge 60%+ run [...]
Evidence that governments are underplaying peak oil
Nov
This comes from the Guardian (hat tip Lee):
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.
The senior official claims the US has played an influential [...]
The coming collapse of the municipal bond market
Nov
Why aren’t more municipal bonds being downgraded by the ratings agencies Fitch, Moody’s and S&P? If you look at sovereign debt in revenue-constrained countries like Greece, Portugal or Ireland, the ratings agencies are issuing warnings.
But, states and municipalities are suffering from the same revenue constraints. Tax revenues have plunged. Governments have shut down services [...]
2,923 views
Wood warns of correction, says “key variable in the West is government policy”
Nov
Christopher Wood, the well-noted market strategist at CLSA and writer of the classic Japan crash warning book “The Bubble Economy,” is now warning of a market correction in the West. According to CNBC India, Wood believes that the markets’ extreme upward move is increasing the chances of a major correction.
Wood is still cautious. He says [...]
255 views
Reserve Bank of Australia lifts rates again
Nov
This is the second straight month that the RBA has raised interest rates. From the Sydney Morning Herald:
The Reserve Bank has lifted its key interest rate for a second month in a row as it attempts to keep Australia’s economy on track for sustained growth.
Today’s widely tipped 25-basis-point increase raises the central bank’s cash rate [...]
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