The United States has gone from saving an average of 8-10% of income for decades to zero or negative savings today. If you look at this chart of 12-month rolling average monthly data, it looks like people actually saved more as inflation increased in the 1960s and 1970s. Then, the bottom fell [...]
Economy's archives
Chart of the day: Savings Rate
May
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Spanish economy slowing fast
May
A leading Spansh newspaper, ABC, reported today that Spanish growth is decelerating quickly. According to the paper, year-on-year growth slowed from 3.5% to 2.7% while quarter-on-quarter, growth was only 0.3% versus 0.8% in the previous quarter.
The article goes on to say that construction spending has been hampering both growth and employment as housing has [...]
Soros calls credit crisis the worst since ‘29
May
George Soros claims that we are experiencing the most wrenching times in our financial system since the Great Depression. One has to be either appreciative of his advice or envious of his wealth. He made $3 billion in 2007 as a hedge fund manager while the debacle unfolded.
“We are in the midst of [...]
Chart of the day: Jobless Claims
May
This chart speaks for itself.
See also:Unemployment Report: biggest rise in rate in two decadesChart of the day: Change in jobless claims
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What’s different about 2008?
May
I am on record for expecting a serious downturn after the Tech Bubble crashed in 2001. We muddled through for a few years, but ultimately most of the damage was done and gone by 2004. The Tech Bubble was a bubble of asset prices that had little influence on the underlying global financial [...]
Chart of the day: Debt to GDP
May
Since the beginning of the bull market in 1982, the U.S. has become a society hooked on debt. Total debt (including financial services companies) has nearly doubled as a percentage of GDP in those 25-odd years (from 133% of GDP at $4 trillion of debt in 1981 on GDP of $3 trillion to 221% [...]
Carlyle: Expect protracted credit crisis
May
The financial services sector has been reeling from over $300 billion in writedowns due to the credit crisis that has spread globally. I expect further losses to hit this sector in the U.S. due to commercial real estate, credit cards, auto, Alt-A mortgages and an inadequate levels of reserves for bad debt. Moreover, [...]
Spanish local governments struggling with bust
May
On Friday, the Spanish newspaper ABC reported that Spanish municipalities are being hit hard due to the tax revenue shortfalls emanating from the effects of the Spanish property market crash. The two local governments most affected have been Madrid and Catalonia.
“The two municipalities that earned the most from [property-related] taxes, Madrid and Catalonia, in [...]
Chart of the day: current account deficit
May
The U.S. has been spending more than it earns for years. This deficit spending is measured as the current account deficit. The graph here is a depiction of where we were and what we have come to. We had a slight surplus in after the last major recession in 1991. Now [...]
US Recession Signals
May
The U.S. has been flashing red regarding recession for some time despite the naysayers.First, let me define recession because you usually hear that it’s two consecutive quarters of a decline in real GDP. Not exactly. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of recessions says:
The NBER does not define a [...]
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