The motivating factor? this article in Politico:
President Barack Obama plans to announce in next year’s State of the Union address that he wants to focus extensively on cutting the federal deficit in 2010 – and will downplay other new domestic spending beyond jobs programs, according to top aides involved in the planning.
The president’s plan, which [...]
Economy's archives
I am now moving from multi-year recovery to a double dip baseline
Nov
1,346 views
Rosenberg: U.S. GDP is overstated
Nov
This morning, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff had another wonderful piece. I am only going to take on one part of it here. I have linked to the full article below so that you can read his analysis in it’s entirety (registration free but required).
The part I want to focus in on has to [...]
Ten lessons from financial crisis investors will soon forget
Nov
A friend sent me the following presentation earlier in the week when I was feeling a bit ill. So I neglected to post it. But, I want to return to it because it is in keeping with my recovery/depression theme. These are the issues that were complicit in the latest financial crisis and almost none [...]
Parallels between US and Japanese economies
Nov
In the video below, Marshall Auerback gives a even-handed analysis of the parallels between the US and Japan on Fox Business with Brian Sullivan.
Demographic trends, GDP trends and deleveraging trends are all similar. But, Marshall goes further by pointing to the misallocation of fiscal resources, the emergence of crony capitalism and the likelihood of [...]
New unemployment claims are coming down
Nov
The latest number on unemployment claims shows a seasonally-adjusted 502,000 people applied for unemployment insurance last week, bringing the more meaningful 4-week average down to 519,750, the lowest since late November 2008. That is a good thing because it shows the labor market is improving.
Nevertheless, 500,000 initial claims in an environment of reduced hiring is [...]
Consumer credit down, but does it show deleveraging?
Nov
I have just taken a look at the consumer credit figures for September, released just yesterday by the Federal Reserve. The data do show some modest deleveraging, especially when looking at the recent increase in nominal GDP. However, it is still not clear to me that the scale of deleveraging is great enough to induce [...]
2,119 views
Rosenberg: “the mother of all jobless recoveries”
Nov
While I see the job numbers as pretty much what was expected, the data do make clear that we are seeing a major jobless recovery. David Rosenberg has a piece out today that goes right to the heart of the issue:
All we can say is that if the overwhelming consensus is correct that the recession [...]
Comprehensive unemployment rate is 17.5%
Nov
The employment market is pretty grim. We’re talking a double digit unemployment rate – and that’s just the base rate. The comprehensive unemployment rate is now 17.5% in the US. This is a fact not lost on our politicians. Today, Barack Obama signed a bill that extends unemployment benefits and home buyer tax credits. But,, [...]
10.2% unemployment, 190,000 jobs lost
Nov
Average weekly hours a record low of 33.0. Stock futures now down. The household survey says we have lost 1.3 million jobs in three months. 17.5% U-6 unemployment. Median duration of unemployment is now 18.7 weeks from 15.4 just 3 months ago – ugly.
Here is an excerpt from the release (bolding added).
The unemployment rate rose [...]
Better last claims report before employment number
Nov
The Department of Labor data released this morning indicated that 512,000 people filed initial claims for unemployment insurance in the latest week. This is down 20,000 from last week and marks the last data points we are to get on employment before tomorrows employment numbers are released.
All indications are that the number will come in [...]
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