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Win Thin 153 posts 0 comments

Win Thin is the Head of Emerging Markets Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Win received his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University in 1995, specializing in international and development Economics. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983.

Economy

Emerging Markets On A Tear; Uruguay Latest Upgrade by Moody’s

Win Thin Dec 8, 2010

Moody’s upgraded Uruguay two notches to Ba1 from Ba3 previously, bringing it into line with S&P’s BB+. We recently added Uruguay to our sovereign ratings model universe, bringing the total number of EM countries ranked to 39. As we…

Markets

Brazil Rate Hike Chatter Picks Up

Win Thin Dec 8, 2010

by Win Thin Chatter about possible Brazil rate hike today is picking up after November IPCA inflation rose 0.83% m/m and 5.63% y/y. The y/y rate is the highest since February 2009, when the SELIC policy rate was 12.75%. While there is a…

Markets

European Debt Woes Expand As Hungary Downgraded

Win Thin Dec 6, 2010

Moody’s downgraded Hungary two notches to Baa3, matching the BBB- ratings by both S&P and Fitch. Our model has long put Hungary at junk status, and we note that its implied rating deteriorated further in our latest round to BB/Ba2/BB…

Markets

Brazil Hikes Reserve Requirements, Policy Rate Hike Seen In January

Win Thin Dec 3, 2010

Brazil hiked bank reserve requirements on time deposits to 20% from 15% and on cash deposits to 12% from 8%. Measures will take effect December 13 and an estimated BRL61 bln will be removed from the system. Central bank chief Meirelles…

Markets

Indonesia Upgrade Soon, But IDR Remains Hostage To Risk Appetite

Win Thin Dec 1, 2010

Moody’s put Indonesia’s rating on review for possible upgrade. This is a stronger statement than the June move to positive outlook on the Ba2 rating (equivalent to BB), and we think an upgrade will be seen soon. Indeed, the agencies are…

Political Economy

Some Thoughts On The IMF And Europe

Win Thin Dec 1, 2010

The IMF total contribution to the European rescue fund is not a solid one. That is, the IMF responds to country-by-country requests for aid, not to regions. Thus, the IMF really does not have EUR250 bln set aside just for Europe.…

Markets

Brazil Central Bank Likely To Tighten In January

Win Thin Nov 30, 2010

We have long felt that the market was underestimating tightening potential in 2011, but it appears to be coming around to our view. Weekly central bank survey shows market is now looking for an end-2011 policy rate of 12.25%, up from 12.0%…

Markets

Portugal Remains Under Pressure As Contagion Intensifies

Win Thin Nov 26, 2010

It seems like it’s only a matter of time before Portugal succumbs to the contagion. As seen in EM crises of the past, we simply cannot ignore the fact that contagion remains a very strong force and so we see little chance that Portugal…

Economy

Hungary Developments Are Worrisome

Win Thin Nov 24, 2010

by Win Thin Hungary is perhaps taking a more obvious approach to influencing monetary policy than Brazil, as ruling Fidesz party has reportedly submitted an amendment to the Central Bank Act that would give the cabinet sole control of…

Economy

Ireland Budget Plan Likely Too Optimistic

Win Thin Nov 24, 2010

by Win Thin Details of Ireland’s four-year budget plan are emerging and it contains the expected mix of spending cuts and tax hikes that is needed to get IMF/EU aid. Ireland did not bow to outside pressure to hike the corporate tax…