Author

Sober Look 181 posts 0 comments

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

Markets

Ruble hits new lows as Bank of Russia focuses on more “pressing” issues

Sober Look Mar 8, 2014

Capital outflows from Russia seem to be picking up steam. These outflows - combined with the central bank's "weaker ruble" policies and the Ukrainian tensions - are all fueling the ruble sell-off. The ruble resumed its slide this week,…

Economy

Will the slowdown in US services sector reverse with warmer weather?

Sober Look Mar 6, 2014

In trying to assess the trajectory of the US economy, one is struck by the recent divergence between the manufacturing and the services sectors. Most analysts blame the weakness in the service sector and the resulting softness in the labor…

Markets

Can the rally in global commodities be sustained?

Sober Look Mar 5, 2014

We are seeing broad improvements across global commodity markets. To be sure, commodity valuations are still at depressed levels relative to the past decade, but after a prolonged decline, broad indices seem to have stabilized.

Markets

Ukraine’s currency in free fall

Sober Look Feb 28, 2014

Ukraine's financial situation continued to unravel today as the currency gave up another 10% - and seems to be in free fall.

Economy

China’s raw materials bubble bursts

Sober Look Feb 25, 2014

Steel, iron ore futures in China tanked on bloated (all-time high) inventories and apparent lending curbs by Chinese banks.

Economy

Risks of Abenomics ‘stalling out’

Sober Look Feb 24, 2014

"Most of the CPI effects of the Bank of Japan’s efforts to depreciate the yen remain confined to a relative price shock to food and energy that crowds out spending power elsewhere in the economy on future second-round effects in the absence…

Markets

On the importance of the Fed’s reverse repo facility for safe asset collateral

Sober Look Feb 24, 2014

Expectations of future shortages in quality liquid bonds in US debt markets continue to persist. These shortages however are likely to be more acute for short-term paper. As a percentage of total government debt for example, treasury bills…

Economy

Four signs of economic slowdown in China

Sober Look Feb 22, 2014

Given the difficulty in obtaining reliable data out of China, what other evidence do we have that the nation's economy is actually slowing? Here are four signs that seem to support the "slowdown" thesis.

Economy

ECB still ignoring the disinflationary trend

Sober Look Feb 21, 2014

So far the ECB has not responded to the disinflationary risks building in the euro area. Some Governing Council members dismissed the calls for action from numerous economists, referring to the analysts' reports as the "Anglo-Saxon"…

Markets

Three reasons for the Russian ruble’s decline to record lows

Sober Look Feb 20, 2014

The Russian economy is barely growing. The Russian central bank has no intention of supporting the ruble. We are also seeing some spillover from the Ukrainian mess.