Articles By: Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler joined Brown Brothers Harriman in October 2005 as the global head of currency strategy. Previously he was the chief currency strategist for HSBC Bank USA and Mellon Bank. In addition to frequently providing insight into the developments of the day to newspapers and news wires, Chandler's essays have been published in the Financial Times, Barron's, Euromoney, Corporate Finance, and Foreign Affairs. Marc appears often on business television and is a regular guest on CNBC and writes a blog called Marc to Market. Follow him on twitter.

Here are my most recent posts

QE will end, GDP growth expected at 3.0%, deflator at 1.4%

- This will be a busy week between stress tests and data releases, which markets have taken as positively
- Market expectations have settled down, and the Fed is widely expected to announce the finish of QE
- Economic news for Europe has been mixed so far, with M3 improving by German IFO disappointing
- The initial impact of the Ukrainian and Brazilian elections will be local

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Exaggerating the dollar’s demise as reserve currency

Exaggerating the dollar’s demise as reserve currency

By Marc Chandler The headline of the Financial Times today reads “Paris rails against the dollar’s dominance.”; It could have been written nearly any time in the past half century. After all it was a former French President Giscard d’Estaing, who as finance minister in the 1960s, complained about the “exorbitant privilege” that the US drew from the role of […]

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ECB Action: Just a Question of Time?

The Managing Director of the IMF and the chief economist are making no bones about it. More action by the ECB is inevitable. It is “just a question of timing,” says Lagarde and “sooner was better than later”, chimed Blanchard, the chief economist. The market is less sanguine.

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On Europe’s move toward QE to prevent deflation

There is a battle within the European Central Bank. Some want to take stronger action. Others do not think it is necessary. It is not just a matter of counting up who is on what side of the issue. It is not simply about majority rules. The ECB seeks consensus. As is well appreciated, there are important political and legal obstacles to buying European sovereign bonds.

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Can the Jobs Data Give the Dollar Another Leg Up?

Can the Jobs Data Give the Dollar Another Leg Up?

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains that were scored largely in response to Draghi’s revelation that QE and a negative deposit rate were discussed at the ECB meeting. The consensus expects that the US economy grew 200k jobs last month and that the unemployment rate ticked down to 6.6% from 6.7%. In addition, the ISM for the service sector saw a strong recovery, providing new information we did not have at the start of the week. The bottom-line here is that US economic growth picked up in late Q1.

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Calm before the Storm?

Calm before the Storm?

The US dollar is narrowly mixed, largely within its well-worn trading ranges against the major currencies with two exceptions. There have been several marginal developments over the 24 hours that are shaping the investment climate.

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More Thoughts about Potential for QE from the ECB

More Thoughts about Potential for QE from the ECB

By Marc Chandler There seems to be a stepped effort by ECB officials to talk the euro down. The process began with Draghi last week indicated that the euro has become a more salient factor as it poses a deflationary risk and threatens the fragile economic recovery.  Earlier today, Bundesbank President Weidmann specifically did not rule out quantitative easing but […]

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Three PMI Surprises, but France Takes the Show

Three PMI Surprises, but France Takes the Show

By Marc Chandler There have been three flash PMI reports today, and each was surprising. China and Germany surprised on the downside while the French surprise was on the upside. HSBC’s flash read on China’s manufacturing sector weakened for the fifth consecutive month. The flash March reading of 48.1 compares with the final February of 48.5. The forward looking new […]

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The Fed and the Return of Ad Hockery

The Fed and the Return of Ad Hockery

By Marc Chandler There has been sharp rise in US interest rates and the dollar in the immediate response to the Federal Reserve’s statement. The key it seemed was the expectation that Fed funds would be at 1% at the end of next year. This is more than the market had expected. The December Fed funds futures were implying a […]

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After Crimea: Next Moves

After Crimea: Next Moves

By Marc Chandler In response to the Crimean referendum, new sanctions have been announced. The European Union has announced sanctions against 21 Russian individuals. This was the bare minimum expected. It will include travel visa bans and asset freezes. The longer list, which reported will be used to escalate the pressure, includes 130 names. It is not thought to impact […]

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Events in China and Ukraine are dominant macro drivers

Weekend developments will dominate the first part of the week ahead. Two developments stand out. First, China announced a doubling of the permissible band from 1.0% to 2.0% around the daily fix. The PBOC deliberately and preemptively facilitated the narrowing of onshore and offshore yuan interest rates to avoid a new influx of capital that might have been spurred by the widening of the trading band. The second development over the weekend was the Crimean referendum.

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Russia and the Birth of the Eurodollar Market

Russia and the Birth of the Eurodollar Market

Talk that Russia could be behind the bulk of the more than $100 bln drop in the Federal Reserve’s custody holdings for foreign central banks, in the week ending Wednesday has many observers scratching their heads. This would represent about eighty percent of the dollar holdings.

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