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Emerging economies have not decoupled

Emerging economies have not decoupled

The global crisis of 2008-09 hit emerging markets nearly as hard as it hit rich countries, which is welcome news compared to previous crises in which emerging markets often suffered much more than developed economies. This column explores emerging economies’ growth dynamics since the crisis.

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The Strong Case for Global Investing

The Strong Case for Global Investing

If we have learned anything from the current financial mess, it’s that building wealth is dependent on rational analysis, careful decision making, and risk management. That’s why sticking close to home at a time when our markets are more uncertain than ever is a recipe for disaster and absolutely the wrong thing to do. Not only will you miss out on the world’s fastest-growing markets, but the odds are exceptionally high that you will miss as much as 50% or more in potential returns over the next decade.

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Europe’s Plan Will Not Reduce Greek Debt

Europe’s Plan Will Not Reduce Greek Debt

Postmortems of last month’s European Union summit meeting have now turned to why the Greek debt rescue failed to restore investor confidence in the country’s finances. Many reasons are advanced: the failure to communicate clearly; the complexity of the plan; the inability to coordinate with the International Monetary Fund. There’s a simpler explanation: The debt-reduction deal failed because it didn’t reduce the debt.

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Change We Can Believe In

Change We Can Believe In

We repeat: the “debt problem” is a currency problem and the currency must and will collapse. The global monetary system exists at the pleasure of the Fed, which legally exists at the pleasure of Congress, which as we have learned only has the political will to control the Fed at the pleasure of the Fed’s shareholder banks. It is the Fed and nothing else that determines the solvency of Treasury. Analogously, it is the Fed that ensures the ultimate solvency of the fractionally-reserved banking system – the system that shorts dollars via perceived “lending” today and covers those dollars once devalued as the Fed creates them tomorrow. Ultimately, Congress, the Fed and Wall Street will have to answer to the masses that buy milk and pay and staff its military.

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Is Italy running out of money?

Is Italy running out of money?

Institutional investors have learned how to create and game self-fulfilling prophecy runs in various asset markets. (George Soros understood this and demonstrated its efficacy with his effort to break the pound in 1992.) Indeed, this is one of the “secrets” to manufacturing higher absolute returns if you are a hedge fund portfolio manager – namely, creating and managing such bandwagon effects. It is a plausible simple story with a self-fulfilling aspect to it.

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“Great Recession” Far Worse Than We Had Been Previously Told

“Great Recession” Far Worse Than We Had Been Previously Told

Included in the BEA’s first (“Advance”) estimate of second quarter 2011 GDP were significant downward revisions to previously published data, some of it dating back to 2003. Astonishingly, the BEA even substantially cut their annualized GDP growth rate for the quarter that they “finalized” just 35 days ago — from an already disappointing 1.92% to only 0.36%, lopping over 81% off of the month-old published growth rate before the ink had completely dried on the “final” in their headline number. And as bad as the reduced 0.36% total annualized GDP growth was, the “Real Final Sales of Domestic Product” for the first quarter of 2011 was even lower, at a microscopic 0.04%.

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How does fiscal consolidation affect the economy?

How does fiscal consolidation affect the economy?

The research presented below from the IMF from October 2010 “finds that fiscal consolidation typically reduces output and raises unemployment in the short term. At the same time, interest rate cuts, a fall in the value of the currency, and a rise in net exports usually soften the contractionary impact.”

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Do economic crises lead to policy reform?

Do economic crises lead to policy reform?

If economic crises make the short-run pains of reforms easier to bear, then crises could yield considerable long-run benefits. But this column argues that the recent global financial crisis has been wasted thus far. It suggests that it is political crises – and not economic turmoil – that actually bring about reforms.

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Debt ceiling dynamics are bond bullish

Debt ceiling dynamics are bond bullish

Warren Mosler argues that either way the debt ceiling debate goes, the economy remains vulnerable to looming external shocks. And that is bullish for bonds.

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QE3, Treasury Style

QE3, Treasury Style

What happens on August 3rd if no debt ceiling negotiation is reached in the US. This column argues that Treasury could go around, not over the debt ceiling limit by using its constitutional authority to mint money.

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The European project is doomed without reform

The European project is doomed without reform

Europe is in a dire situation. If it doesn’t address the underlying causes of the Greek crisis quickly, Europe’s political project will face the same fate as communism and the US Confederacy, writes James K. Galbraith.

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After careful consideration, I remain bearish

After careful consideration, I remain bearish

The S&P has gone from 2 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average on the 16th June to 2 standard deviations above it now, something it did prior to the 87 crash when it rallied 6.4% in the week prior to the crash. It has been doing this more and more frequently recently although not of the scale of swing we have just seen. Our economists have already said that a single payroll figure is not sufficient to cause QE3 to which I agree. Commodity prices are telling us that further Asian stimulus is not going to happen unless offset by demand destruction elsewhere in the world. The risks are clearly mounting up.

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