Articles By: Edward Harrison
Banks Paying Cash to Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures
Here’s the latest story that’s been getting buzz around the internet: banks are trying to get troubled mortgages off their books without having to go through costly foreclosure processes and they are offering homeowners cash incentives to do so
Greek protests turn very anti-Germany
This is how it’s going down in Greece right now. The sentiment is very Anti-German on the eve of the austerity/bailout decision. The debt haircut and writedowns coming of upwards of 50% is a default in everything but name. Technical default is a real possibility as well
[Premium] Dow Transports lagging is a warning sign
There are still a lot of Dow Theory followers out there even after over 100 years. And the divergence between a bullish DJIA headline number and the lagging Dow Transports is bearish from a technical perspective
News Links: Greek Default: Why Now May Be Best Time to Do It
Greek Default: Why Now May Be Best Time to Do It – US Business News Blog – CNBC Last week in general gave life to the recovery theme, with 15 of 23 indicators beating expectations and causing some economists to raise their growth outlook for the full year. So, with sentiment running so garishly positive,
Quick note on updates at Credit Writedowns
I have instituted a few changes at Credit Writedowns to which I wanted to alert readers. The changes were mostly for members but they affect all readers. I had heard from a few member readers that it wasn’t clear where member content resides as most of it is integrated into the normal post stream. So I have made a number of changes in order to make the member content much more recognizable as members-only content
[Premium] Ireland’s Private Debt Problem
You saw the chart about two weeks ago on Developed economies’ debt levels by sector. Different economies have different debt problems. A few like Greece have public sector debt woes. And this is the sort of problem that forces a default only when the country is a currency user (and not a monopoly issuer of currency) as Japan has demonstrated. Mostly, however, the problem is in the private sector, where all of the indebted parties are currency users
[Premium] Growth momentum shift to Emerging Markets continues
Two weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Indonesia has re-attained an investment grade rating, continuing the upward path it has been on since the Asian crisis derailed the Asian growth story 15 years ago. Indeed, we should expect emerging markets, and Asian emerging markets in particular to outperform developed economies
[PREMIUM]: 2012 an inflection point toward S&P500 margin compression
What I have been saying throughout 2011 is that margin compression is going to happen no matter what. The cuts have been made and so margins cannot grow any higher from cuts. It has to come from operating leverage that increases as a result of revenue growth
News Links 02/04/2012
Schneiderman Files Civil Fraud Lawsuit Against Three Major Banks for Use of MERS « naked capitalism New York filed a lawsuit against various units of JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells, MERSCORP and MERS over their use of MERS in foreclosures. This civil suit alleges that the use of MERS has “resulted in a wide
El-Erian on jobs: Headline bullish but structural issues remain
Bloomberg Television has another video with PIMCO head Mohamed El-Erian, this time on the jobs number. This one number has the potential to set the tone for the short-term because it was so far ahead of consensus estimates. El-Erian cautions about getting to far into the risk-on trade because of the number though as the US still has structural issues. I would add that it is a long way to November and this is just one number. Let’s see how the picture develops
Chart of the day: Labor force participation rate at 30-year low
The jobs data were the best we have seen in a long time and well above expectations. This and the first upward revisions to the annual revisions were a pleasant surprise. While a lot of people are in disbelief because of a present bearish bias, you have to take the numbers for what they are and they are bullish. I still feel that the US economy is at stall speed and expect a second recession by the end of 2013 but I am prepared to upgrade my assessment based on how things proceed. That said, this is just one month’s data in a notoriously noisy month for employment data (See the premium post Jobless claims jump may be seasonality)