Articles By: Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty years of business experience. He is also a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College. Edward also writes a premium financial newsletter. Sign up here for a free trial.

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Here are my most recent posts

News: 2014-04-21

News: 2014-04-21

News links for 21 Apr 2014

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News: 2014-04-18

News: 2014-04-18

News links for 18 Apr 2014

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Could the US economy accelerate higher in 2014

Could the US economy accelerate higher in 2014

I have been saying for some time now that I believe peak growth in this US business cycle was Q3 2013. Nevertheless, I want to explore the possibility that growth will accelerate from here, something that could keep stock prices and other risk asset prices elevated. A few quick thoughts below First, today’s jobless claims number at 304,000 supports the […]

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News: 2014-04-17

News: 2014-04-17

For Obama, Standoff With Moscow Jumbles Plans at Home and Abroad – WSJ.com ECB hardliner Weidmann comes in from the cold as deflation threatens | Reuters Weibo, a Chinese Answer to Twitter, Prices Its Offering at $17 – NYTimes.com – NYTimes.com Apple Said to Prepare Song-ID Feature for IPhone Software – Bloomberg YouTube Network The Young Turks Raises $4 Million […]

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Secular versus cyclical factors in equity markets

Secular versus cyclical factors in equity markets

Continuing where I left off yesterday, it’s clear that the global economy is growing now. We see growth in the US, Europe, Japan, and in emerging markets. Economic growth is the norm, not the exception. And over the longer term, markets will rise to reflect that growth. That’s what I mean when I say market and economic momentum is up and to the right. Here’s the problem; there are periods of time when economies and markets fall out of bed. And sometimes the upheaval is so great, it turns into a generational divide – a depression and/or secular bear market. I believe there is a good case that we are still both in a depression and a secular bear market and I want to explain how that matters below.

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News: 2014-04-16

News: 2014-04-16

News links for 16 Apr 2014

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Dealing with confirmation bias in macro analysis at market turning points

Dealing with confirmation bias in macro analysis at market turning points

My macro view for most of the global economy is upbeat. My only downbeat views concern deceleration of growth in emerging markets and froth in capital markets. But in the main, market and economic momentum is up and to the right. The natural path is progress. Or at least it has been for the last couple hundred years. In that vein, I see the US in a middling upturn, Europe in an improving recovery and China in a softish landing due to loss socialization. But if you read my daily analysis, it is full of worry and in-depth coverage of downside risks. For some of you, it can be confusing. You’re saying to yourself, “I thought you were upbeat about this.”

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News: 2014-04-15

News: 2014-04-15

News links for 15 Apr 2014

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Risk for Greece and European periphery from Ukraine crisis escalation mounts

Risk for Greece and European periphery from Ukraine crisis escalation mounts

The big news in the markets today is the standoff in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian armed rebels and the Ukrainian military. This has European markets selling off. The potential for problems in eastern Ukraine is something we should have seen as a possibility given the motives in the Texas annexation I outlined as a comparative case. Given that analysis, I still believe the question now is more about how Ukraine responds in eastern Ukraine than how Russia, Europe, NATO, or the US respond. It looks like we will get a military response. And as such, the potential for dramatically increasing tension with Russia is high. The European periphery will be especially vulnerable because of this. In addition, Russia is already moving away from the West as a hedge. Thoughts below

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News: 2014-04-14

News: 2014-04-14

News links for 14 Apr 2014

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News: 2014-04-12

News links for 12 Apr 2014

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Economic and market themes: 2014-04-11 – Greece

Economic and market themes: 2014-04-11 – Greece

This week’s theme post will be exclusively about Greece because I think the Greek bond deal is emblematic of trends we see in markets and the real economy. And of course, the big news in the past few days is Greece. Its 5-year government bond deal was over six times oversubscribed, even after a 50% increase in the allotment. The […]

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