Articles By: Annaly Salvos
Really Nominal GDP
by Annaly Capital Management Released by the BEA this morning: the advance reading of real GDP came in at 3.2% for the 4Q of 2010 (actually, it was 3.17%, but who’s counting?) versus expectations of 3.5%. There was a lot of internal noise, with large positive contributions from personal consumption and net exports, offset by
One Half of the Municipal Picture
By Annaly Capital Management Lost in the headlines over the state of the expense side of municipal finances is the fact that tax revenues are rising at the state and local level. The U.S. Census Bureau tracks the various line items of receipts for governments, and the news is that in the third quarter of
This Week in Housing
by Annaly Capital Management This was a relatively data-filled week for the housing market. We’ll start with the good news. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales rose more than expected in December 2010, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.28 million homes. Also reported was the level of
Deficit Attention Disorder
By Annaly Capital Management Senator Rand Paul is on the tape promising to unveil a budget with $500 billion in expense cuts in one year, and that he will not spare any government program or agency from his scythe, including the Defense Department, the Education Department (he would eliminate it altogether) and entitlement programs. As
The Conundrum of Central Bankers
by Annaly Capital Management An interesting recent piece by Reuven Glick and Kevin J. Lansing of the San Francisco Fed looks to explain changes in the savings rate over time. On an aggregate level, the authors point out that the savings rate is mostly a function of: 1. Wealth – if I’m already wealthy, I
A Kind Word for Homeowners
By Annaly Capital Management The next voice to be heard in the debate on the future of housing finance in the United States will be that of the Treasury Department, which is slated to release its report on the subject sometime this month. Given the sensitive political and economic nature of the topic, the complexity
Manufacturers’ New Orders Under the Lens
by Annaly Capital Management Yesterday the Census Bureau released manufacturers’ new orders, which is usually seen as a leading indicator for the US economy. According to a Bloomberg article titled Orders to U.S. Factories Increase in Sign of Sustained Recovery: “The 0.7 percent increase in bookings topped the median forecast of economists surveyed….” The 0.7%
Housing Humbug
This marks the 4th month in a row of falling home prices, and the first negative year-over-year reading since January of 2010. Freddie Mac released their monthly volume summary for November which contained information on seriously delinquencies (90 days or more delinquent), which rose for the 2nd month in a row. As you can see below, this delinquency rate tends to move with unemployment, which crept back above 15 million people in November. Delinquencies had been on an improving trend throughout 2010, and the recent reversal is worth watching. The coming year could be an interesting one for the US housing market.
Sales Season Roundup
by Annaly Capital Management Seasonally adjusted greetings to Annaly Salvos readers around the world! In the commercial spirit of the season (and a day early for our blog post this week), we thought we’d go down a level from the headline retail sales numbers, which have been trending strongly of late. In November, retail sales
Reserve Currency Roulette
by Annaly Capital Management Following up on our post from Friday, in which we illustrated the currency reserve and GDP market share of a number of different countries, a kind reader asked a question: “I wonder what percentage of the world’s foreign exchange reserves the dollar had when it was redeemable among central banks in
Chart of the Day: Market Share of GDP and Foreign Exchange Reserves
Whether or not we are witnessing the end of the debate in Europe or simply another milestone on the way to The United States of Europe is a question for a dissertation, not a blog. In the meantime, these questions lead us to consider the current global monetary standing of “the member states whose currency is the dollar.” Below is the shrinking market share of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency since 1999…and the growth of the euro. And below is the United States’ shrinking market share of global GDP (in constant dollars) currency since 1969…and the growth of China and India. These are all changes that have occurred along the sweep of economic history, and for relatively short intervals at that. Far be it for us to draw conclusions on such large matters with such little data, but here are two: historical secular trends are hard to stop, and one of the greatest global economic advantages is scale
Reading the Tea Leaves
by Annaly Capital Management Today’s “must read” comes courtesy of Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton Business School and “Stocks For the Long Run” fame. His Wall Street Journal op-ed, titled “The Fed’s Policy Is Working,” can be read online with a subscription. The piece can be summarized in the following quote: “The recent surge in