In-depth analysis on Credit Writedowns Pro.

The decoupling of Italy from the periphery

I had intended to write this post yesterday morning. However, after the bank scandal in Italy and the surprise drop in US GDP, I waited a day. The gist of what I intend to say here is that Italy is in the process of decoupling from Spain. The Monte Paschi scandal certainly complicates this thesis a bit. But I think there are valid reasons for the decoupling.

What precipitated the post was an article in Spanish newspaper El Pais on yield movements. The article notes that the differential between Spanish and Italian yields is at its highest level since the European sovereign debt crisis began. Here’s the snapshot they used to present their case:

[Content protected for Gold members only]

For now, the focus is on France and Spain with me expecting France to ‘converge’ to Spain due to difficulties in housing in France. Italy, which does not have these difficulties, should diverge from Spain and continue to pull away from the periphery as Ireland has done.

About 

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty years of business experience. He is also a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College. Edward also writes a premium financial newsletter. Sign up here for a free trial.