arrow11 Comments
  1. avatar David Lazarus
    May 21 - 17:22

    This is exactly what the UK is doing to itself, and Germany imposing on the rest of Europe. We all know how it turned out then, and so only fools would try the same and expect a different outcome.

  2. avatar Yossarian
    May 22 - 12:24

    OK, that is what he said, what was the actual result? If I watched a movie made based on what this president said in speeches and what he actually did it would be two profoundly different films…

    • avatar Edward Harrison
      May 22 - 13:46

      Hoover made cuts and raised taxes – It wasn’t lip service. read the documents yourself. The deflating credit, bank sector, and consumer demand caused revenue to collapse and he could not close the gap.

      • avatar Yossarian
        May 22 - 16:11

        From BLS: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals

        Total Outlays 1929-1935: 3,127->3,320->3,577->4,659->4,598->6,541->6,412

        Tax Receipts 1929-1935: 3,862, 4,058, 3,116, 1,924, 1,997, 2,955, 3,609

        Surplus to Deficit 1929-1935: 734, 738, -462, -2,735, -2,602, -3,586, -2,803

        GDP 1930-1936: 97.4, 83.9, 67.6, 57.6, 61.2, 69.6, 78.5

        So show me where the draconian austerity is? Seems Fed govt increased outlays until 1934 (where it plateaus), increased deficits until 1935.

        Austerity is an economic reality that can only be cured with real growth or masked with inflation. Govt spending is rarely a path to real, sustainable growth so deficits plus debt monetization raise taxes on the poorest among us via inflation (or preventing necessary decline in price of goods).

        I you want to see real austerity look here: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/asia-s-take-on-austerity

        • avatar Edward Harrison
          May 22 - 18:56

          Your analysis is simply not granular enough. Hoover was a President but the budget must be passed by Congress. You need to look at the source data in terms of the discussions they were having to understand the context, particularly after the 72nd congress in 1930. You can’t just quote headline numbers without knowing what actually transpired. That’s sloppy scholarship.

        • avatar Edward Harrison
          May 22 - 19:03

          I should also add that if you look at the line items, there were massive cuts in defense and education when the deficit exploded after FY 1931. The deficit for FY 1931 was only $129 million but exploded to 1.6 billion in 1932. Hoover got cuts in education, defense and general spending but these were offset by increases in welfare and transportation. Again, Hoover’s proposed budget was to cut (and raise taxes). The budgetary process is where the additional expenditures were added.

        • avatar Edward Harrison
          May 22 - 19:07

          See here:

          “You will recollect that the budget sent to Congress represented reductions in expenditures for the next fiscal year of about $365 million below the present fiscal year”

          http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/04/hoover-balancing-budget-least-increase-taxes.html

          You need to read the source documents to see what actually happened. You can’t make assumptions based on top level data as you have done.

          • avatar Yossarian
            May 22 - 21:55

            I honestly don’t understand what you are arguing. The Keynesian narrative that you seem to be struggling to support is that Hoover’s “austerity” brought about the Great Depression. But, as the facts show (and I think we agree on), there was no austerity, in fact quite the opposite, regardless of what Hoover may have wanted.

            Now I am no Herbert Hoover fan- I think he was as bad as Harding was good (very)- but since you cannot show his fiscal conservatism as successfully implemented, can you at least affirm his deficit hawk bona fides? Can you tell me whether Hoover vetoed any of these bloated Congressional budgets and in which years he was over-ridden? Thx…

          • avatar Edward Harrison
            May 23 - 10:05

            I think it’s important to get the historical facts right instead of biasing them through an ideological lens. The fact is Hoover was not talking austerity in 1930 and 1931. His budgets for 1930 and 1931 did not have large deficits. Once the bank crisis hit, the 1932 budget was catastrophic and that’s when the austerity rhetoric started. But in the end, he capitulated and as the crisis deepened, we never heard the austerity talk again.

            Hoover did not veto the spending. He signed off on it.

            As for your comments about what ’caused the depression, I don’t think you have the Keynesian narrative right actually. It isn’t the narrative I am ‘struggling to support’ either, probably because I’m not a Keynesian. The right narrative is that the depression was the result of significant malinvestment that was built up during the 1920s as a result of loose monetary policy at the Fed. Rothbard wrote “only by contriving for other countries, especially the U.S., to inflate also, could [Britain] check the loss of gold and therefore halt the collapse of the whole jerry-built international monetary structure.”

            See here:
            http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/federal-reserve.html

            The question in the 1930s was how to eliminate the malinvestment and reallocate capital investment to useful productive enterprises without creating a deflationary spiral. When credit is written down, GDP drops and people are thrown out of work. That can be mitigated. It was bank runs that created the deflationary spiral that caused a Great Depression. So the answer is to write down assets and recapitalise the banking system quickly rather than dragging it out.

            In the context of bank runs, attempts at austerity made things considerably worse. Austerity is a failed paradigm. The government shouldn’t have wasteful programs so there should be no need to cut them to cut a deficit. Moreover, the deficit is the result of an ex-post accounting identity between private savings, and current account and government balances. It makes zero sense to target the effect (deficits) instead of the cause (excess credit growth and malinvestment).

  3. avatar Yossarian
    May 24 - 15:22

    Thanks for the responses and I’m sorry if I mistakenly accused you of being a Keynesian- it is not a nice thing to say to an intelligent person. So I am glad to see that we are in agreement that the Hoover Era was one of substantial stimulus, with govt expenditures more than doubling in a four year period, even if Hoover’s un-granted wish was austerity.

    But this whole debate over whether stimulus or austerity is going to get us out of this mess is foolish because it relies on the underlying false assumption that a painless solution is possible. The fact is, there was a credit boom spanning multiple presidential administrations that led to the misallocation of resources and the accumulation of false wealth on the margin. That wealth cannot come back on a real basis (perhaps it can on a nominal basis with substantial inflation).

    I am fully in agreement that the bad debts must be written down, the financial system recapitalized, and assets find their market clearing level in the process. Supporting a bankrupt financial system on the backs of the taxpayers and then criticizing the exploding deficits is the wrong approach. Since a quick, steep asset and real goods deflation could not be tolerated by the political classes, the “temporary” bailout/subsidy drags on and a global inflationary wealth transfer is attempted (QE1, QE2, QE3, LTRO, BOJ printing, etc.).

    But while we can agree that budgets shouldn’t be balanced in order to support the bankrupt financial sector, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the financial decline is entirely responsible for the dire fiscal situation. Between 2000 and 2008 spending rose from ~$1.8T to $3T, about 2% as a % of GDP. Not egregious. But we now know that much of that production and wealth was false, created by a credit bubble. Congress/President, like the American people, thought we were getting wealthier and expanded their budgets accordingly (why there are apparently no scale benefits in govt is another matter). Now that we know the truth we should do what Asian economies did in 1990′s (or 1920-21 US): write down assets, default on debts, manage bankruptcies, recapitalize, cut budgets to new, manageable levels; generally restructure the economy and
    re-start from a sustainable level. Hit the reset button.

    Instead we will kick the can and pretend we are not in this predicament. The productive among us- rich and poor alike- will suffer for the benefit of the unproductive- rich and poor alike.

    • avatar Edward Harrison
      May 24 - 21:02

      exactly. Agree 100%. The problem is too much private debt and the solution is writing it down (hence the name of the site, by the way). And I also agree that we now know that much of that production and wealth was false, created by a credit bubble. Trying to reflate the economy back to the false high of 2008 is the wrong tack. So I have to agree again that there will be pain. Government’s role is making sure the system doesn’t spiral down and that people aren’t destitute while the transition occurs. Propping up bankrupt institutions and trying to promote even more (bad) credit is making things considerably worse (as we will see in the next downturn).

Mobile Theme