Are these haircuts on Greek debt really such a good idea? Or are they really just a stopgap that will make things all the worse in the long-run?
Sure, Mr. Market seems to think they’re fantastic. But then, Mr. Market has always been about as easy to please as a rather stupid dog: give him a car to chase and he’ll be happy – until his nose inevitably meets the bumper, of course. After all, these are the same markets that rally every time the Fed or the Bank of England announces more monetary voodoo ala QE.
As many of us have been saying time and again, the situation is simply not sustainable until the ECB takes up its proper role and backstops all the wayward debt. Until then, the whole thing will continue to resemble a man trying to lift a bucket by the handle while he stands on it. He might make a lot of noise and attract a lot of attention, but he’s not going to get anywhere.
There are any number of reasons that these haircuts will not work.
First up, there is still the implicit assumption that once the haircut is taken the Greek deficit can be brought under control. The recently leaked document from within the Eurostructure was sceptical of this, but even that document was overly optimistic as far as we can see. With the levels of unemployment that Greece continues to suffer – levels that will probably rise in the near future – those deficits are here to stay.
Then there’s the issue whether or not haircuts of 50% will be considered sufficiently voluntary. Not to mention the assumption that private sector funds will recapitalize the banks that lost capital on the write downs.
But the real elephant in the room – nay, it’s more like a mammoth – is the assumption that these haircuts will not cause other Eurozone countries bond yields to rise, thus requiring further intervention by the EFSF and, most likely, the ECB.
Think about this. You’re a private sector institution that has to ensure that you don’t take losses on crappy paper. You’ve now seen that the Eurocrats are willing to burn anyone who invests in the sovereign debt of any European country that experiences significant financial difficulties – difficulties which, it should be pointed out, are imposed on these countries by the Eurocrats. And you’re expected to continue to consider, for example, Italian debt to be relatively safe? What a lark!
The Eurocrats are essentially telling those who invest in the sovereign debt of European nations that they are expendable and open to taking massive losses should political whims lead the Eurocrats to further wreck the region’s economies and systems of government finance. Good marketing plan, folks! Keep it up; soon you’ll have scared all your customers away! Who knows, maybe it’s all a big Halloween prank!?
We can expect that the ratings agencies should catch up to this not so subtle point soon. Then the conditions for a perfect storm will be in place and yields will start to climb on the government bonds of various European countries. This will then require further bond buying from the EFSF and ECB.
This, of course, is probably the direction in which the whole thing is headed. But it’s going to take a long time to get there and it’s going to carry with it a whole lot of unnecessary pain for a whole lot of people.