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ECRI Weekly Index falls to a 56-week low of -6.9

This comes via the ECRI website:

A measure of future U.S.economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, but its annualized growth rate continued to fall, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.9 in the week ended June 18, up from 122.4 the prior week, originally reported as 122.5.

The index’s annualized growth rate fell to minus 6.9 percent from a revised minus 5.8 percent, originally reported as minus 5.7 percent. That was its lowest level since May 22, 2009, when it stood at minus 8.7 percent. "After falling for six weeks, the uptick in the level of the Weekly Leading Index suggests some tentative stabilization, but the continuing decline in its growth rate to a 56-week low underscores the inevitability of the slowdown," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

The economy is still growing but signs of a slowdown are increasing in spite of the uptick in the number. The longer annualized growth of this index remains negative, the more worried policy makers should be.

Note: The title of this post erroneously pointed to last week’s revised -5.8 figure as the number for this week. The reading for this week was -6.9.

About Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty years of business experience. He is also a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages, a skill he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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