Achuthan: Leading Indicators Point To Slowing Growth; Jobs Outlook Murky
Lakshman Achuthan is a Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ECRI studies recessions and recoveries, forecasting economic and inflation cycle turns for all major market economies using a rigorous and objective methodology. They correctly forecasted this recession and recovery. Recently, their Leading Economic Index has been hitting recovery lows, something that both Albert Edwards and David Rosenberg see as significant for the economy and shares.
About Edward Harrison
- Revisiting employment indicators for signs of recovery 10 Aug 2009
- Data point of the day: actual unemployment rates 8 May 2009
- Unemployment numbers still point to partial recovery 2 Oct 2009
- ECRI Leading Economic Index at 42-week Low; Recovery is already fading 25 May 2010
- Jobless claims stuck near 530,000, point to structurally high unemployment 22 Oct 2009
So they are recruiting back at half the pay, so that is a bad sign for the growth of the economy. Look for further job losses as customers are spending less, because they are getting paid less. It is a vicious circle.