Initial jobless claims rise dramatically to 482,000
From the U.S. Department of Labor:
In the week ending Jan. 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 482,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 446,000. The 4-week moving average was 448,250, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 441,250.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Jan. 16 |
Jan. 9 |
Change |
Jan. 2 |
Year |
|
Initial Claims (SA) |
482,000 |
446,000 |
+36,000 |
433,000 |
575,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Initial Claims (NSA) |
650,728 |
804,922 |
-154,194 |
645,446 |
763,987 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
448,250 |
441,250 |
+7,000 |
449,750 |
526,500 |
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Jan. 9 |
Jan. 2 |
Change |
Dec. 26 |
Year |
|
Ins. Unemployment (SA) |
4,599,000 |
4,617,000 |
-18,000 |
4,807,000 |
4,576,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) |
5,716,608 |
6,016,445 |
-299,837 |
5,484,997 |
5,651,117 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
4,750,500 |
4,860,250 |
-109,750 |
5,006,500 |
4,515,500 |
It is just one week in a period of heavy adjustments. But let’s not spin things here; this was not an encouraging report. The labor market is still weak, especially because of a lack of open positions.
See that number highlighted in yellow? That’s from the recently released JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) data. A decline of 900,000 job openings in a year’s time is not good. The only thing this labor market has going for it right now is the decline in layoffs because there are a record 5.6 million people on extended benefits right now.
So let’s hope this is a one-week blip. The word is this was due to administrative delays the week before. So, we’ll have to wait and see.
Sources
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – U.S. Labor Department
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – Bureau of Labor Statistics
EUC was up by 652k to 5.6mm in just 1 week – more forgotten unemployed people collecting emergency checks. As long as Turbo Tim can get away with issuing treasuries at an “ok” rate and Bubble Ben can print $, this sort of charade can be sustained (possibly). When the bond and/or currency markets throw up, then what?
I see social unrest coming for all the reasons that Ed has outlined and more – Obama has become extremely arrogant and won’t change even after the MA election debacle. If he fires Summers, Geithner and Bernanke, maybe, just maybe we get a new sustainable beginning. Markets will fall (crash?) but the foundation will be stronger.