That’s what we seem to be expecting based on the huge uptick in equities since March. While stock markets have long since moved it up a gear, the employment market is stuck in neutral. The latest seasonally-adjusted jobless claims numbers came in at 530,000. The widely-followed four week average is still 526,250 and is not coming down.
These numbers are more consistent with a loss of 200,000 jobs per month than of one of declining unemployment. When you have more people losing jobs than getting them, you don’t have the pre-conditions for a sustainable recovery. The economy needs to move it up a notch or we are looking at a double dip.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
| Advance |
|
|
| Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WEEK ENDING | Oct. 24 | Oct. 17 | Change | Oct. 10 | Year |
Initial Claims (SA) | 530,000 | 531,000 | -1,000 | 520,000 | 485,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims (NSA) | 492,456 | 460,430 | +32,026 | 509,730 | 449,389 |
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) | 526,250 | 532,250 | -6,000 | 533,000 | 477,750 |
| Advance |
|
|
| Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WEEK ENDING | Oct. 17 | Oct. 10 | Change | Oct. 3 | Year |
Ins. Unemployment (SA) | 5,797,000 | 5,945,000 | -148,000 | 6,034,000 | 3,773,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) | 4,968,019 | 4,916,574 | +51,445 | 4,953,947 | 3,233,118 |
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) | 5,960,750 | 6,039,500 | -78,750 | 6,093,250 | 3,746,500 |
Source
Weekly Unemployment Claims Report – ETA Press Releases
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