A sustainable recovery with 530,000 weekly claims?

| 29 October 2009 09:24

That’s what we seem to be expecting based on the huge uptick in equities since March. While stock markets have long since moved it up a gear, the employment market is stuck in neutral. The latest seasonally-adjusted jobless claims numbers came in at 530,000. The widely-followed four week average is still 526,250 and is not coming down.

These numbers are more consistent with a loss of 200,000 jobs per month than of one of declining unemployment. When you have more people losing jobs than getting them, you don’t have the pre-conditions for a sustainable recovery. The economy needs to move it up a notch or we are looking at a double dip.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS


 

Advance

 

 

 

Prior1

WEEK ENDING

Oct. 24

Oct. 17

Change

Oct. 10

Year

Initial Claims (SA)

530,000

531,000

-1,000

520,000

485,000

Initial Claims (NSA)

492,456

460,430

+32,026

509,730

449,389

4-Wk Moving Average (SA)

526,250

532,250

-6,000

533,000

477,750

 

Advance

 

 

 

Prior1

WEEK ENDING

Oct. 17

Oct. 10

Change

Oct. 3

Year

Ins. Unemployment (SA)

5,797,000

5,945,000

-148,000

6,034,000

3,773,000

Ins. Unemployment (NSA)

4,968,019

4,916,574

+51,445

4,953,947

3,233,118

4-Wk Moving Average (SA)

5,960,750

6,039,500

-78,750

6,093,250

3,746,500

Source

Weekly Unemployment Claims Report – ETA Press Releases

avatar About Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty years of business experience. He is also a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages, a skill he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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