Comments on: Unemployment rate to 9.7%, 216,000 jobs lost http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html a finance news and opinion site Mon, 22 Mar 2010 06:53:58 +0000 hourly 1 By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-8421 Edward Harrison Sun, 06 Sep 2009 18:42:14 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-8421 I'm just looking for the counterfactual. I generally agree with your viewpoint. But, I have to probe the counterargument which I am doing by saying these problems are a more severe version of the same from prior recessions. What's different today? I'm just looking for the counterfactual. I generally agree with your viewpoint. But, I have to probe the counterargument which I am doing by saying these problems are a more severe version of the same from prior recessions. What's different today?

]]> By: aitraderhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-8420 aitrader Sun, 06 Sep 2009 18:32:36 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-8420 <i>That has been the reality for each and every business cycle since jobless recoveries started in 1991.</i><br><br>So the recovery is based on hope and a quick look in the rearview mirror?<br><br>I'd feel more comfortable if you dazzled me with forwarding looking facts and figures frankly.<br><br>Tsk, tsk Edward! That has been the reality for each and every business cycle since jobless recoveries started in 1991.

So the recovery is based on hope and a quick look in the rearview mirror?

I'd feel more comfortable if you dazzled me with forwarding looking facts and figures frankly.

Tsk, tsk Edward!

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6269 Edward Harrison Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:42:14 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6269 I'm just looking for the counterfactual. I generally agree with your viewpoint. But, I have to probe the counterargument which I am doing by saying these problems are a more severe version of the same from prior recessions. What's different today? I'm just looking for the counterfactual. I generally agree with your viewpoint. But, I have to probe the counterargument which I am doing by saying these problems are a more severe version of the same from prior recessions. What's different today?

]]> By: aitraderhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6268 aitrader Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:32:36 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6268 <i>That has been the reality for each and every business cycle since jobless recoveries started in 1991.</i><br><br>So the recovery is based on hope and a quick look in the rearview mirror?<br><br>I'd feel more comfortable if you dazzled me with forwarding looking facts and figures frankly.<br><br>Tsk, tsk Edward! That has been the reality for each and every business cycle since jobless recoveries started in 1991.

So the recovery is based on hope and a quick look in the rearview mirror?

I'd feel more comfortable if you dazzled me with forwarding looking facts and figures frankly.

Tsk, tsk Edward!

]]> By: thegrinderhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6262 thegrinder Sat, 05 Sep 2009 09:01:29 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6262 Recovery to what? It appears that the economy has dropped a few notches and it will not be reboundeding back to past levels for some time. With the ponzi like securitization market kaput, the easy money offered by the rivate sectior has dried up. The govt can continue its schemes until the markets refuse to allow it. At what point does this occur?<br>I do not recall in past recessions where foreigners were questioning the viability of the dollar. I believe the tipping point has arrived, but it may not unravel into hyperinflation as quickly as people like John Wiliams think.<br>Higher rates would be devastating to such a levered economy. With so many states in fiscal deficits, we could see waves of layoffs at the public level.<br>The way I see it, there is no new growth engine in the economy to make up for the phoney lending that carried us for the last decade or more. Is cash for clunkers or $8000 housing credits going to solve our lopsided economy? <br>I do think that housing sucks up to many subsidies and is overrated as an economic engine. Recovery to what? It appears that the economy has dropped a few notches and it will not be reboundeding back to past levels for some time. With the ponzi like securitization market kaput, the easy money offered by the rivate sectior has dried up. The govt can continue its schemes until the markets refuse to allow it. At what point does this occur?
I do not recall in past recessions where foreigners were questioning the viability of the dollar. I believe the tipping point has arrived, but it may not unravel into hyperinflation as quickly as people like John Wiliams think.
Higher rates would be devastating to such a levered economy. With so many states in fiscal deficits, we could see waves of layoffs at the public level.
The way I see it, there is no new growth engine in the economy to make up for the phoney lending that carried us for the last decade or more. Is cash for clunkers or $8000 housing credits going to solve our lopsided economy?
I do think that housing sucks up to many subsidies and is overrated as an economic engine.

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6257 Edward Harrison Fri, 04 Sep 2009 22:17:17 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6257 The thing is artificial stimulus can work its magic far better than fundamental analyst types like you wish. It's completely conceivable, dare I say likely, that we will see a recovery here. That has been the reality for each and every business cycle since jobless recoveries started in 1991.<br><br>Almost all of the problems we see today about rising debt levels and unbalanced growth, reckless lending and too big to fail have been hallmarks of every American recession since 1974. Eventually, they will be the death of America's growth machine but there are plausible arguments that we can get through this ordeal today and continue on the same path. The thing is artificial stimulus can work its magic far better than fundamental analyst types like you wish. It's completely conceivable, dare I say likely, that we will see a recovery here. That has been the reality for each and every business cycle since jobless recoveries started in 1991.

Almost all of the problems we see today about rising debt levels and unbalanced growth, reckless lending and too big to fail have been hallmarks of every American recession since 1974. Eventually, they will be the death of America's growth machine but there are plausible arguments that we can get through this ordeal today and continue on the same path.

]]> By: aitraderhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6256 aitrader Fri, 04 Sep 2009 20:12:12 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6256 9.7% is nigh close to 10 and we're just talking "headline" unemployment here. The U6 measure is around 17%. Just how do we interpret these numbers in a positive light? And where do we bears see the 2nd derivative? Accelerating now I would say. Bodes ill, naught but icebergs aheads mateys! 9.7% is nigh close to 10 and we're just talking “headline” unemployment here. The U6 measure is around 17%. Just how do we interpret these numbers in a positive light? And where do we bears see the 2nd derivative? Accelerating now I would say. Bodes ill, naught but icebergs aheads mateys!

]]> By: thegrinderhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6255 thegrinder Fri, 04 Sep 2009 19:41:29 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6255 any comment?<br><a href="http://about-monster.com/sites/default/files/employment-index/MEIAug09Full%2520Report%2520-%2520FINAL.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://about-monster.com/sites/default/files/em...</a><br><br>It seems that just about everyone is looking for any little bit of info to confirm a rebound. Throwing all this phoney money all around the economy will have some impact, but in the longer term nothing is being done to structurally change the economy to one that is balanced between consumption and savings /service and mfg. any comment?
http://about-monster.com/sites/default/files/em...

It seems that just about everyone is looking for any little bit of info to confirm a rebound. Throwing all this phoney money all around the economy will have some impact, but in the longer term nothing is being done to structurally change the economy to one that is balanced between consumption and savings /service and mfg.

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6253 Edward Harrison Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:51:54 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6253 I like John's work and have quoted from it before. However, I tend to be dubious about reading conspiracies into the data keepers' agenda. When I think seasonality is at play, I use the year-over-year non-seasonal measures to 'triangulate.' These second derivative measures also give a good read on directionality.<br><br>Right now the data seem to indicate a slow move away from large job losses - slow enough to worry about a double dip but fast enough to think the recession is probably over. I like John's work and have quoted from it before. However, I tend to be dubious about reading conspiracies into the data keepers' agenda. When I think seasonality is at play, I use the year-over-year non-seasonal measures to 'triangulate.' These second derivative measures also give a good read on directionality.

Right now the data seem to indicate a slow move away from large job losses – slow enough to worry about a double dip but fast enough to think the recession is probably over.

]]> By: Research Recap » Blog Archive » Unemployment Casts a Long Shadow over Economic Recoveryhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6251 Research Recap » Blog Archive » Unemployment Casts a Long Shadow over Economic Recovery Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:22:28 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6251 [...] Ed Harrison at CreditWritedowns is a bit more optimistic but also offers several negative indicators including this: The 12-month loss in seasonally-adjusted non-farm payrolls (NFP) is still increasing and is at a business cycle high of 5.8 million. [...] [...] Ed Harrison at CreditWritedowns is a bit more optimistic but also offers several negative indicators including this: The 12-month loss in seasonally-adjusted non-farm payrolls (NFP) is still increasing and is at a business cycle high of 5.8 million. [...]

]]> By: thegrinderhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6252 thegrinder Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:54:35 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/unemployment-rate-to-9-7-216000-jobs-lost.html#comment-6252 Do you trust or believe the numbers reported?<br>John Williams at shadowstats thinks that Monthly Payroll Decline Was 300,000<br>Net of Renewed Seasonal Factor Games Do you trust or believe the numbers reported?
John Williams at shadowstats thinks that Monthly Payroll Decline Was 300,000
Net of Renewed Seasonal Factor Games

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