Comments on: Are jobless claims pointing to structurally high unemployment? http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: The recession is over but the depression has just begun « naked capitalism http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-6627 The recession is over but the depression has just begun « naked capitalism Fri, 02 Oct 2009 03:51:18 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-6627 [...] view of a second, more serious downturn mirrors the one I wrote of when I wrote about high structural unemployment last week. And, again, it is predicated on what government does.  I wrote last November that if [...] [...] view of a second, more serious downturn mirrors the one I wrote of when I wrote about high structural unemployment last week. And, again, it is predicated on what government does.  I wrote last November that if [...]

]]> By: kynikos http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-57205 kynikos Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:20:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-57205 You have to remember the primary reason why the housing bubble occured: houses are NOT tradable goods. (and thus not subject to import competition) Also, the housing bubble "created" various jobs in construction, and had secondary effects in increasing consumption which also gave a boost to the service sector. The higher "employment" rate in the early 2000s relative to most of Europe in the US does not reflect its dynamism or the superiority of neoliberalism, but the result of a misallocation of resources. Germany was well known for its high unemployment and welfare state. Edward, do you think it is a politically stable situation of socialism (high unemployment) without socialism (welfare state)? At least Germany has a welfare state. You have to remember the primary reason why the housing bubble occured: houses are NOT tradable goods. (and thus not subject to import competition) Also, the housing bubble “created” various jobs in construction, and had secondary effects in increasing consumption which also gave a boost to the service sector.

The higher “employment” rate in the early 2000s relative to most of Europe in the US does not reflect its dynamism or the superiority of neoliberalism, but the result of a misallocation of resources. Germany was well known for its high unemployment and welfare state.

Edward, do you think it is a politically stable situation of socialism (high unemployment) without socialism (welfare state)? At least Germany has a welfare state.

]]> By: FT.com | Money Supply | Morning round-up http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-6576 FT.com | Money Supply | Morning round-up Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:08:59 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-6576 [...] too much influence. Employment may be set to pick up sooner than expected, but there are fears that unemployment will remain structurally high. The severity of this recession may be shaping a risk-averse generation that believes that success [...] [...] too much influence. Employment may be set to pick up sooner than expected, but there are fears that unemployment will remain structurally high. The severity of this recession may be shaping a risk-averse generation that believes that success [...]

]]> By: doctorx http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-57196 doctorx Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:21:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-57196 What do you think of this hypothesis? "The Bushbama Continuity of massive favoritism toward giant gambling "banks" and their stakeholders has IMO caused serious harm to the psyche of people involved in small-midsized businesses.? It sure has to mine.? The "Where's our bailout?" complaint may retard the business expansion in ways that simply did not exist after prior post-WW II downturns."? What do you think of this hypothesis?

“The Bushbama Continuity of massive favoritism toward giant gambling “banks” and their stakeholders has IMO caused serious harm to the psyche of people involved in small-midsized businesses.? It sure has to mine.? The “Where’s our bailout?” complaint may retard the business expansion in ways that simply did not exist after prior post-WW II downturns.”?

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-57195 Edward Harrison Thu, 24 Sep 2009 17:23:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-57195 Yes, it is the lack of hiring, not the firings that create the problem. That's what I meant when I said that capacity was slack and hours worked were at record lows. Yes, it is the lack of hiring, not the firings that create the problem. That’s what I meant when I said that capacity was slack and hours worked were at record lows.

]]> By: doctorx http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-57194 doctorx Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:55:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/are-jobless-claims-pointing-to-structurally-high-unemployment.html#comment-57194 There are other headwinds. IMHO proposed healthcare reform legislation's 8% tax for co's w/o hlth insurance for employees chills hiring at small co's. If I'm on the fence as a small employer, I just won't do that incremental hiring. In fact, I will focus on operating margins and ask existing employees to work harder. I also doubt that init unemp claims tell the full story. There's also very little hiring. Look at Gallup.com's survey updated daily. The unemp rate was rising when many more respondents were seeing hiring than firing going on. We are mired at equal levels of hiring/not-hiring for about 9 months-horrible. Perhaps the umep rate will end Sept around 10% on its way to 11%. There are other headwinds. IMHO proposed healthcare reform legislation’s 8% tax for co’s w/o hlth insurance for employees chills hiring at small co’s. If I’m on the fence as a small employer, I just won’t do that incremental hiring. In fact, I will focus on operating margins and ask existing employees to work harder.

I also doubt that init unemp claims tell the full story. There’s also very little hiring. Look at Gallup.com’s survey updated daily. The unemp rate was rising when many more respondents were seeing hiring than firing going on. We are mired at equal levels of hiring/not-hiring for about 9 months-horrible. Perhaps the umep rate will end Sept around 10% on its way to 11%.

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