Comments on: Spain: savings banks suffer while BBVA and Santander expand http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html a finance news and opinion site Mon, 22 Mar 2010 06:53:58 +0000 hourly 1 By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html#comment-7812 Edward Harrison Fri, 21 Aug 2009 21:19:49 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html#comment-7812 You may have seen the FT Alphaville post out today that mirrors my concern that BBVA and Santander, along with the rest of Spain, are playing extend and pretend. Here's the link:<br><br><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/21/68016/are-spanish-banks-hiding-their-losses/" rel="nofollow">http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/21/6801...</a><br><br>I may write it up. You may have seen the FT Alphaville post out today that mirrors my concern that BBVA and Santander, along with the rest of Spain, are playing extend and pretend. Here's the link:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/21/6801...

I may write it up.

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html#comment-6068 Edward Harrison Fri, 21 Aug 2009 15:19:49 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html#comment-6068 You may have seen the FT Alphaville post out today that mirrors my concern that BBVA and Santander, along with the rest of Spain, are playing extend and pretend. Here's the link:<br><br><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/21/68016/are-spanish-banks-hiding-their-losses/" rel="nofollow">http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/21/6801...</a><br><br>I may write it up. You may have seen the FT Alphaville post out today that mirrors my concern that BBVA and Santander, along with the rest of Spain, are playing extend and pretend. Here's the link:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/21/6801...

I may write it up.

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html#comment-6055 Edward Harrison Thu, 20 Aug 2009 15:06:21 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html#comment-6055 Carmelo, I am frankly amazed at how long Santander and BBVa have been able to make it through without showing huge problems. Early in 2008 I expected Santander's US and UK exposure to reveal more writedowns. This has yet to happen. I also expected BBVA to show more losses in Mexico. Again, nothing here yet.<br><br>There are two interpretations I take away: First, BBVA and Santander were a lot more prudent domestically than the Cajas. Second, there are a lot of toxic assets on BBVA and Santander's balance sheets that are marked to maturity.<br><br>Only when the actual foreclosure or loss occurs will these assets be written down. This is also true for many of the Cajas as well. So while Santander and BBVA look much better than the Cajas, they likely have more exposure to bad credit in Spain, the UK, US, Argentina and Mexico than we have seen documented to date. Carmelo, I am frankly amazed at how long Santander and BBVa have been able to make it through without showing huge problems. Early in 2008 I expected Santander's US and UK exposure to reveal more writedowns. This has yet to happen. I also expected BBVA to show more losses in Mexico. Again, nothing here yet.

There are two interpretations I take away: First, BBVA and Santander were a lot more prudent domestically than the Cajas. Second, there are a lot of toxic assets on BBVA and Santander's balance sheets that are marked to maturity.

Only when the actual foreclosure or loss occurs will these assets be written down. This is also true for many of the Cajas as well. So while Santander and BBVA look much better than the Cajas, they likely have more exposure to bad credit in Spain, the UK, US, Argentina and Mexico than we have seen documented to date.

]]> By: carmelohttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html#comment-6046 carmelo Thu, 20 Aug 2009 06:31:39 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/spain-savings-banks-suffer-while-bbva-and-santander-expand.html#comment-6046 The real estate crisis in Spain is just beginning, loans in arrears will increase for the following years. As construction means 20% of GDP, growth will be anemic for the next 4 years at least. BBVA will have many problems to solve in Mexico whereas Santander will be impacted by UK. Frankly economic data sucks in Spain and they are dancing on their own titanic's deck The real estate crisis in Spain is just beginning, loans in arrears will increase for the following years. As construction means 20% of GDP, growth will be anemic for the next 4 years at least. BBVA will have many problems to solve in Mexico whereas Santander will be impacted by UK. Frankly economic data sucks in Spain and they are dancing on their own titanic's deck

]]>