<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: How snap judgment leads to poor investing</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html</link>
	<description>Finance, Economics and Markets</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	
<xhtml:meta xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" name="robots" content="noindex" />
	<item>
		<title>By: Guest</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html#comment-57216</link>
		<dc:creator>Guest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2009 15:40:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html#comment-57216</guid>
		<description>  
The Holy Grail to Investing. 

The utlimate business solution. The ability to cut the cost of any business expense, or just plain invest. 

Developed multiple arbitrages for the financial markets. Arbitrages that produce just a few percent a year, to arbitrages that produce over 30 percent a year. 

In 2001 i started developing, as of now, a dozen arbitrages. I lock in an X percentage, and Y time later, i close out the arbitrage. Over 30%/yr. 

Risk-Free Investing is not only possible, but in abundance. Just that people are told and taught that it is impossible. No risk has been in front of all, but not seen. 

The market is unlimited. 

I&#039;m interested in selling, or partnering to sell, or partner in a business that uses my arbitrage.


Thomas 
352-283-3326 
HolyGrailToInvesting@hotmail.com

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Holy Grail to Investing. </p>
<p>The utlimate business solution. The ability to cut the cost of any business expense, or just plain invest. </p>
<p>Developed multiple arbitrages for the financial markets. Arbitrages that produce just a few percent a year, to arbitrages that produce over 30 percent a year. </p>
<p>In 2001 i started developing, as of now, a dozen arbitrages. I lock in an X percentage, and Y time later, i close out the arbitrage. Over 30%/yr. </p>
<p>Risk-Free Investing is not only possible, but in abundance. Just that people are told and taught that it is impossible. No risk has been in front of all, but not seen. </p>
<p>The market is unlimited. </p>
<p>I&#8217;m interested in selling, or partnering to sell, or partner in a business that uses my arbitrage.</p>
<p>Thomas<br />
352-283-3326<br />
<a href="mailto:HolyGrailToInvesting@hotmail.com">HolyGrailToInvesting@hotmail.com</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Stevie b.</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html#comment-56796</link>
		<dc:creator>Stevie b.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2009 09:36:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html#comment-56796</guid>
		<description>Ed - ok, I&#039;m brave enough to say it took me a while to figure out your first anecdote - thank god i&#039;ve no reputation to ruin!

As far as heuristics and pitfalls and not being able to do much else is concerned, I think one over-riding strategy may have been overlooked - and that&#039;s to do nothing for a helluva lot of the time. This may mean going into overdrive for a wee bit of the time, and even then that wee bit could could become a big bit longer if the timing was out. But basically, patience is indeed a virtue and waiting for the herd to provide value tilts the odds in the patient investor&#039;s favour. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ed &#8211; ok, I&#8217;m brave enough to say it took me a while to figure out your first anecdote &#8211; thank god i&#8217;ve no reputation to ruin!</p>
<p>As far as heuristics and pitfalls and not being able to do much else is concerned, I think one over-riding strategy may have been overlooked &#8211; and that&#8217;s to do nothing for a helluva lot of the time. This may mean going into overdrive for a wee bit of the time, and even then that wee bit could could become a big bit longer if the timing was out. But basically, patience is indeed a virtue and waiting for the herd to provide value tilts the odds in the patient investor&#8217;s favour.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Wag the Dog</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html#comment-56794</link>
		<dc:creator>Wag the Dog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2009 08:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html#comment-56794</guid>
		<description>&gt; But, beyond that, I am not convinced we can do much else.

There is one other bias that works against you: illusory superiority
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority

More specifically (and more recently) there is the Dunning-Kruger effect in which the unskilled are completely unaware that they are unskilled:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect

And if the unskilled are over confident of their abilities, they tend to be rewarded in competitive situations over their peers who possess a less inflated opinion of themselves despite having superior skills:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227115.500-humans-prefer-cockiness-to-expertise.html
Perhaps one source of the endogenous market instability is this tendency for the system to exaggerate confidence at the expense of accuracy.

Dan Ariely comments: &quot;These findings are troublesome. Because though confidence and accuracy sometimes go hand-in-hand, they don’t necessarily do so. And when we want confident advisors, some will exaggerate to give us what we want.  Maybe this is why so many pundits on TV for example exaggerate their certainty?&quot;
http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=644&amp;date=1


So if over confident unskilled market makers were to read this book which, in your opinion, oversimplifies the cognitive biases, it may actually only server to reinforce their illusory superiority while failing to realize that even top magicians can still be fooled by the simplest of illusions. Indeed a little learning is a dangerous thing.

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&gt; But, beyond that, I am not convinced we can do much else.</p>
<p>There is one other bias that works against you: illusory superiority<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority</a></p>
<p>More specifically (and more recently) there is the Dunning-Kruger effect in which the unskilled are completely unaware that they are unskilled:<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect</a></p>
<p>And if the unskilled are over confident of their abilities, they tend to be rewarded in competitive situations over their peers who possess a less inflated opinion of themselves despite having superior skills:<br />
<a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227115.500-humans-prefer-cockiness-to-expertise.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227115.500-humans-prefer-cockiness-to-expertise.html</a><br />
Perhaps one source of the endogenous market instability is this tendency for the system to exaggerate confidence at the expense of accuracy.</p>
<p>Dan Ariely comments: &#8220;These findings are troublesome. Because though confidence and accuracy sometimes go hand-in-hand, they don’t necessarily do so. And when we want confident advisors, some will exaggerate to give us what we want.  Maybe this is why so many pundits on TV for example exaggerate their certainty?&#8221;<br />
<a href="http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=644&#038;date=1" rel="nofollow">http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=644&#038;date=1</a></p>
<p>So if over confident unskilled market makers were to read this book which, in your opinion, oversimplifies the cognitive biases, it may actually only server to reinforce their illusory superiority while failing to realize that even top magicians can still be fooled by the simplest of illusions. Indeed a little learning is a dangerous thing.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
<!-- This Quick Cache file was built for (  www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/how-snap-judgment-leads-to-poor-investing.html/feed ) in 0.15128 seconds, on Feb 10th, 2012 at 4:05 am UTC. -->
<!-- This Quick Cache file will automatically expire ( and be re-built automatically ) on Feb 10th, 2012 at 5:05 am UTC -->
