Comments on: Rosenberg: ’Asia Revival May Be For Real’ http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html a finance news and opinion site Sun, 21 Mar 2010 18:21:48 +0000 hourly 1 By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-8300 Edward Harrison Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:38:16 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-8300 the Asian growth story is a first derivative story. If your economy contracts 20% in a quarter <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/singapore/5151451/Singapores-economy-contracts-20pc-in-first-quarter.html" rel="nofollow">as it did in Singapore, using annualized numbers</a>, then you are going to find it easier to grow down the line. Growing from a base of 85 is easier than growing from a base of 100 (which is where Singapore might end up). This does not mean all is well.<br><br>Is the growth sustainable? I believe it is, especially to the degree the Asians use this as an opportunity to de-couple from the west i.e. develop an internal growth dynamic. This appears to be happening, but it is early days, so let's see where this gets us. the Asian growth story is a first derivative story. If your economy contracts 20% in a quarter as it did in Singapore, using annualized numbers, then you are going to find it easier to grow down the line. Growing from a base of 85 is easier than growing from a base of 100 (which is where Singapore might end up). This does not mean all is well.

Is the growth sustainable? I believe it is, especially to the degree the Asians use this as an opportunity to de-couple from the west i.e. develop an internal growth dynamic. This appears to be happening, but it is early days, so let's see where this gets us.

]]> By: tyaresunhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-8299 tyaresun Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:17:37 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-8299 If exports are a very high percentage of Asian economies and the US PCE is decreasing, what is driving the Asian growth? Is there any real evidence of the Asian economies stimulating more consumption? If not, and if the growth is coming from investment in more production capacity, how long will this decoupling last? If exports are a very high percentage of Asian economies and the US PCE is decreasing, what is driving the Asian growth? Is there any real evidence of the Asian economies stimulating more consumption? If not, and if the growth is coming from investment in more production capacity, how long will this decoupling last?

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-5650 Edward Harrison Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:38:16 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-5650 the Asian growth story is a first derivative story. If your economy contracts 20% in a quarter <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/singapore/5151451/Singapores-economy-contracts-20pc-in-first-quarter.html" rel="nofollow">as it did in Singapore, using annualized numbers</a>, then you are going to find it easier to grow down the line. Growing from a base of 85 is easier than growing from a base of 100 (which is where Singapore might end up). This does not mean all is well.<br><br>Is the growth sustainable? I believe it is, especially to the degree the Asians use this as an opportunity to de-couple from the west i.e. develop an internal growth dynamic. This appears to be happening, but it is early days, so let's see where this gets us. the Asian growth story is a first derivative story. If your economy contracts 20% in a quarter as it did in Singapore, using annualized numbers, then you are going to find it easier to grow down the line. Growing from a base of 85 is easier than growing from a base of 100 (which is where Singapore might end up). This does not mean all is well.

Is the growth sustainable? I believe it is, especially to the degree the Asians use this as an opportunity to de-couple from the west i.e. develop an internal growth dynamic. This appears to be happening, but it is early days, so let's see where this gets us.

]]> By: tyaresunhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-5649 tyaresun Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:17:37 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-5649 If exports are a very high percentage of Asian economies and the US PCE is decreasing, what is driving the Asian growth? Is there any real evidence of the Asian economies stimulating more consumption? If not, and if the growth is coming from investment in more production capacity, how long will this decoupling last? If exports are a very high percentage of Asian economies and the US PCE is decreasing, what is driving the Asian growth? Is there any real evidence of the Asian economies stimulating more consumption? If not, and if the growth is coming from investment in more production capacity, how long will this decoupling last?

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-5385 Edward Harrison Mon, 01 Jun 2009 16:38:16 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-5385 the Asian growth story is a first derivative story. If your economy contracts 20% in a quarter <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/singapore/5151451/Singapores-economy-contracts-20pc-in-first-quarter.html" rel="nofollow">as it did in Singapore</a>, then you are going to find it easier to grow down the line. Growing from a base of 85 is easier than growing from a base of 100. This does not mean all is well.<br><br>Is the growth sustainable? I believe it is, especially to the degree the Asians use this as an opportunity to de-couple from the west i.e. develop an internal growth dynamic. This appears to be happening, but it is early days, so let's see where this gets us. the Asian growth story is a first derivative story. If your economy contracts 20% in a quarter as it did in Singapore, then you are going to find it easier to grow down the line. Growing from a base of 85 is easier than growing from a base of 100. This does not mean all is well.

Is the growth sustainable? I believe it is, especially to the degree the Asians use this as an opportunity to de-couple from the west i.e. develop an internal growth dynamic. This appears to be happening, but it is early days, so let's see where this gets us.

]]> By: tyaresunhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-5384 tyaresun Mon, 01 Jun 2009 16:17:37 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/rosenberg-asia-revival-may-be-for-real.html#comment-5384 If exports are a very high percentage of Asian economies and the US PCE is decreasing, what is driving the Asian growth? Is there any real evidence of the Asian economies stimulating more consumption? If not, and if the growth is coming from investment in more production capacity, how long will this decoupling last? If exports are a very high percentage of Asian economies and the US PCE is decreasing, what is driving the Asian growth? Is there any real evidence of the Asian economies stimulating more consumption? If not, and if the growth is coming from investment in more production capacity, how long will this decoupling last?

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