Comments on: Overbought? http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/overbought.html Finance, Economics and Markets Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:29:37 +0000 hourly 1 By: Stevie b. http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/overbought.html#comment-56519 Stevie b. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:30:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/overbought.html#comment-56519 "I think mostly everyone would agree that while the recession may be in its final stages, it is not over just yet." 1/ "Mostly everyone"? Surely a large body of opinion has it that the recession is anything but "in its final stages". Just read Mish for one flavor of an alternative view. However, if David is right, then: 2/ If virtually everyone thinks the recession is in its final stages but not quite over yet, then this view must already be discounted at current price levels! If David is right, as a contrarian I should be buying! Well I am a contrarian, but I'm not buying David's logic...and for totally different reasons I'm also not buying the market! So basically, statistics aside - and it is disingenuous to try to make a current point by using statistics from an earlier age when communication happened at the speed of a horse walking backwards! - I think he's right, but IMHO he uses muddled thinking and warped market logic to get there. “I think mostly everyone would agree that while the recession may be in its final stages, it is not over just yet.”

1/ “Mostly everyone”? Surely a large body of opinion has it that the recession is anything but “in its final stages”. Just read Mish for one flavor of an alternative view. However, if David is right, then:

2/ If virtually everyone thinks the recession is in its final stages but not quite over yet, then this view must already be discounted at current price levels! If David is right, as a contrarian I should be buying! Well I am a contrarian, but I’m not buying David’s logic…and for totally different reasons I’m also not buying the market!

So basically, statistics aside – and it is disingenuous to try to make a current point by using statistics from an earlier age when communication happened at the speed of a horse walking backwards! – I think he’s right, but IMHO he uses muddled thinking and warped market logic to get there.

]]> By: BoDiddlie http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/overbought.html#comment-56515 BoDiddlie Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:41:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/overbought.html#comment-56515 Off topic: I'm unable to subscribe via RSS, Outlook complains that it's not a valid feed (and I've tried both URLs on your site). Any suggestions? Off topic: I’m unable to subscribe via RSS, Outlook complains that it’s not a valid feed (and I’ve tried both URLs on your site). Any suggestions?

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