Jobless claims in second week just over 600K
The unemployment insurance weekly claims report revealed that the number of persons filing an initial claim rose 3,000 this past week to 608,000. While these are still very high numbers, they are the lowest since January, suggesting that claims have peaked in this cycle. Nevertheless, jobless claims are not falling back nearly as quickly as they have done in previous business cycles, making it likely that a lack of employment gains will be a drag on growth for months to come.
Continuing claims also fell, but remain high at 6.687 million on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis and 6.059 million on an unadjusted basis. In general, this report has affirmed a number of downward trends in both adjusted numbers and unadjusted numbers.
- 4-week average initial claims are 615,750, the lowest since February.
- However, 4-week average continuing claims are 6.75 million, still the highest ever.
- The increase in 4-week average unadjusted initial claims is now at its lowest level since December at 206K. While this shows claims are greater than at this time last year, this figure is a leading indicator and has never fallen this far and reversed direction.
- The increase in 4-week average seasonally-adjusted initial claims is also falling, now at the lowest levels since January.
- For continuing claims the same year-on-year dynamic is also in place for the first time with seasonally-adjusted claims (increase is now happening at a slower rate). The unadjusted year-on-year change has been falling for 5 weeks.
Conclusion? The job market is still weak. The unemployment rate will easily hit 10% in the coming months. As a result, expect consumer demand to be weak. Nevertheless, the job market is marginally improved and most indication suggest this is likely a permanent but slow trend.
A fall in continuing claims is a good thing in this market/economy huh?? That just means the unemployment insurance is expiring wholesale on people!! Don’t be stupid monkeys people!! This DEPRESSION has been going on for 24 months….they’re merely being kicked off, not hired off. Now, those people are ENTIRELY wards of the state (food stamps, welfare, state insurance doles, etc.)!!
There are 600k people losing their job every damn reporting period (so they say) and it’s consistently being spun as a GREAT thing. What?!?! This does NOT even count the millions of self-employed people closing shop. If any of you have every owned your own small business you’d know that fully 95% of every self-employed person opts NOT to pay the unemployment tax because they’re already being bent over for so many other taxes (double SS, multiple-city business licenses, transit tax, etc.) These people are not relfected in the rolls people!! It’s far worse than anything they would ever dare report to you. Name one time any of these clowns have ever been truthful!!
Recovery is here! Bottom is in! Economy is turning around! Sales are robust! The consumer is back! What planet are we on that we let these idiots do this to us?? WAKE UP!!!!!!
What the government and Wall Street are doing is so much worse than their largest criminal raping in human history. They are intentionally duping people into buying homes, cars, etc. so they can keep their bottom line up and their bonuses flowing, thereby leaving YOU, the average person and your family, TOTALLY AND UTTERLY UNPREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE EVENT….
PLEASE WISE UP AMERICA. PLEASE TURN OFF AMERICAN IDOL AND DANCING WITH THE STARS. PLEASE PREPARE YOUR FAMILY. SPEND TIME WITH YOUR FAMILY. FIND OUT WHO YOUR FRIENDS ARE AND WHO YOU CAN COUNT ON. YOU’RE RUNNING OUT OF TIME.