Don't underestimate the power of printing money. The stimulus is probably going to induce a cyclical rebound regardless of whether people like you and me think it is a fake recovery. Even Roubini is saying this.

The structural problems the article speak to exist, yes. But, they existed in a more muted form in 2002 and we still got a cyclical rebound and bear market rally. My view is he needs to remove his ideological bias and look at the available evidence.

When I read your optimistic take before, I wondered if the -6% GDP in Q1 was too optimistic. Karl Denninger says that the Q1 number includes a “trade balance shift credit” that puffs the GDP number from -9% to -6%.

See his article below, because I think we'd like your take on a lot of what he says.

Barry

http://seekingalpha.com/article/135642-independ...

Panzer makes some valid points, even if he is a bit skewed to the “doomer” side of things.

Sending a warning about these issues is good copy and perhaps even good journalism. But have we thought about the new structure of the global economy in light of these issues? Oil does look to be on the brink of a supply shortage, even if we are in the midst of a glut right now (”brink” meaning 2-3 years here). What will the global economy look like with oil at a permanent price above $300 a barrel in today's dollars? What will this do to world trade? Who will be the winners and losers?

The global economy will not disappear as oil shocks <strikeout>begin</strikeout> continue. Short term it will likely be a pattern not unlike an undamped shock absorber. I believe this trend is part of a fundamental structural transformation of the underpinnings of cheap energy hence a fundamental transformation of the bedrock of our global economic system.

How that transformation will look ten and twenty years down the road is my interest.