Comments on: Random musings on the market direction http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Glen http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56457 Glen Tue, 26 May 2009 10:38:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56457 I'd like to know what we're suppose to be returning to; surely not what we left off with, that's just not possible. The markets are returning to normal, what the hell is normal? If we're looking for a "back to the future" scenario then expect more of the same just the next time around and nil support from a system that's been milked to the hilt. I’d like to know what we’re suppose to be returning to; surely not what we left off with, that’s just not possible. The markets are returning to normal, what the hell is normal? If we’re looking for a “back to the future” scenario then expect more of the same just the next time around and nil support from a system that’s been milked to the hilt.

]]> By: Wag the Dog http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56455 Wag the Dog Sun, 24 May 2009 15:40:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56455 According to: http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/05/19/pm_full_fuel_tanks/ "Speculators have been piling into the oil futures market and buoying up prices but that's no substitute for real demand." Oil is in contango but onshore storage for oil is running short with some countries turning to storage at sea (i.e. all those tankers that have gone unused in the recession) If there is no production cut, there will soon be a glut of oil hitting the market. For another alternative oil/gold analysis see: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=10685 He does use a rather low estimate for CPI to reach his conclusions. I guess he's a deflationist. According to:
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/05/19/pm_full_fuel_tanks/
“Speculators have been piling into the oil futures market and buoying up prices but that’s no substitute for real demand.” Oil is in contango but onshore storage for oil is running short with some countries turning to storage at sea (i.e. all those tankers that have gone unused in the recession) If there is no production cut, there will soon be a glut of oil hitting the market.

For another alternative oil/gold analysis see:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=10685
He does use a rather low estimate for CPI to reach his conclusions. I guess he’s a deflationist.

]]> By: aitrader http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56453 aitrader Sat, 23 May 2009 23:27:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56453 <i>has gotten</i> ...must be a unique American colloquialism. "Has got" would make Webster a happy(ier) man. On(to)more things...I think this is the sucker rally of the century. I'll buy in when S&P earnings rebound, S&P P/E's hit 12 or better, the BDI climbs to 20,000+, and oil rallies on fundamentals rather than hot air. Lots of learned folks seem to think we've hit a parallel to 1938. I assume they also mean skipping WWII and hitting the late '40's market climb. Why is it recent sentiment seems based more on "recessions only last 24 months or fewer" rather than a read of the core data and fundamentals? has gotten

…must be a unique American colloquialism. “Has got” would make Webster a happy(ier) man.

On(to)more things…I think this is the sucker rally of the century. I’ll buy in when S&P earnings rebound, S&P P/E’s hit 12 or better, the BDI climbs to 20,000+, and oil rallies on fundamentals rather than hot air.

Lots of learned folks seem to think we’ve hit a parallel to 1938. I assume they also mean skipping WWII and hitting the late ’40′s market climb.

Why is it recent sentiment seems based more on “recessions only last 24 months or fewer” rather than a read of the core data and fundamentals?

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56452 Anonymous Sat, 23 May 2009 19:03:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56452 Market sold off, although not necessarily on high volume. Still no-man's land. Market sold off, although not necessarily on high volume. Still no-man’s land.

]]> By: Stevie b. http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56451 Stevie b. Sat, 23 May 2009 17:46:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/random-musings-on-the-market-direction.html#comment-56451 Ed - this is my stream-of-consciousness response. The developed world can't go on like this. Oil prices in particular would be a really severe restraining factor on any sort of global recovery. Fortunately, even assuming a newly-willing consumer (very unlikely), a global recovery is not about to happen any time soon because on top of the rise in oil, the rise in all the other natural resource costs including food would choke it off, never mind rising interest rates/mortgage costs - and if "They" manipulated the bond markets to keep the nascent recovery going, the currencies of those economies that were manipulated this way would crash. It can no longer be business-as-usual ever again. We need a new model, or else we'll just end up right back in the mire, only more so and sooner than we think. The developed world needs to be a little bit more like Cuba and consume less by keeping what we've got going for a little longer than before, whilst the rest of the world catches up a bit. This does not mean that technological developments wont eventually lead us forward, but we need a pause to allow e.g battery technology to become mainstream, along with all other energy businesses from wind-power to solar to energy conservation. Yes, it may mean a bulge in unemployment and some will suffer - but the same thing happened in the UK under Thatcher and we emerged a better place. It's a fact that unless we want to end up like the old ossified Russia, we need purges from time to time and this means those in the wrong place or born at the wrong time or with the wrong skills - they will suffer - but better some than everyone. Basically, the majority of us in the developed world need to be more happy with what we've got. Frugality does indeed need to be and must be more -in-. Ed – this is my stream-of-consciousness response. The developed world can’t go on like this. Oil prices in particular would be a really severe restraining factor on any sort of global recovery. Fortunately, even assuming a newly-willing consumer (very unlikely), a global recovery is not about to happen any time soon because on top of the rise in oil, the rise in all the other natural resource costs including food would choke it off, never mind rising interest rates/mortgage costs – and if “They” manipulated the bond markets to keep the nascent recovery going, the currencies of those economies that were manipulated this way would crash.

It can no longer be business-as-usual ever again. We need a new model, or else we’ll just end up right back in the mire, only more so and sooner than we think. The developed world needs to be a little bit more like Cuba and consume less by keeping what we’ve got going for a little longer than before, whilst the rest of the world catches up a bit. This does not mean that technological developments wont eventually lead us forward, but we need a pause to allow e.g battery technology to become mainstream, along with all other energy businesses from wind-power to solar to energy conservation.

Yes, it may mean a bulge in unemployment and some will suffer – but the same thing happened in the UK under Thatcher and we emerged a better place. It’s a fact that unless we want to end up like the old ossified Russia, we need purges from time to time and this means those in the wrong place or born at the wrong time or with the wrong skills – they will suffer – but better some than everyone. Basically, the majority of us in the developed world need to be more happy with what we’ve got. Frugality does indeed need to be and must be more -in-.

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