Comments on: ISM Manufacturing Index has hit bottom http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/ism-manufacturing-index-has-hit-bottom.html Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:48:41 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/ism-manufacturing-index-has-hit-bottom.html/comment-page-1#comment-4999 Edward Harrison Fri, 01 May 2009 20:06:21 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=8357#comment-4999 No doubt we have some serious headwinds.<br><br>However, on balance I believe we will get have seen the bottom. As I was saying to Jake at EconomPic Data about the bottoming out in unemployment as well, it IS interesting. You are right that we'll have to wait and see until mid-summer. By then, the trend will be clear.<br><br>One thing you forgot to add was the huge implosion in CRE both in the States and Europe. No doubt we have some serious headwinds.

However, on balance I believe we will get have seen the bottom. As I was saying to Jake at EconomPic Data about the bottoming out in unemployment as well, it IS interesting. You are right that we'll have to wait and see until mid-summer. By then, the trend will be clear.

One thing you forgot to add was the huge implosion in CRE both in the States and Europe.

]]> By: aitrader http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/ism-manufacturing-index-has-hit-bottom.html/comment-page-1#comment-4996 aitrader Fri, 01 May 2009 19:48:38 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=8357#comment-4996 Sorry to disagree with you Edward but I see the "bottoming" as a lull due to the trillions and trillions of newly minted money dumped into the global economic system over the last 6-8 months. The effects of unemployment in the US and Europe still haven't been felt and probably won't affect the figures until mid-Summer.<br><br>Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltic states, are collapsing. The Western European banks are on the hook for most of their mortgages and commercial real estate. Again, we won't feel the effects until July at the earliest.<br><br>In my view we are in a lull before the storm. By mid-Summer it's going to feel like an economic Tsunami hit Europe. The US may seem to be in a holding pattern but will be in the same boat by Fall. Sorry to disagree with you Edward but I see the “bottoming” as a lull due to the trillions and trillions of newly minted money dumped into the global economic system over the last 6-8 months. The effects of unemployment in the US and Europe still haven't been felt and probably won't affect the figures until mid-Summer.

Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltic states, are collapsing. The Western European banks are on the hook for most of their mortgages and commercial real estate. Again, we won't feel the effects until July at the earliest.

In my view we are in a lull before the storm. By mid-Summer it's going to feel like an economic Tsunami hit Europe. The US may seem to be in a holding pattern but will be in the same boat by Fall.

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