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Data point of the day: actual unemployment rates

Below is a chart of the actual non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates as calculated via the household survey. All of the unemployment rates are down from March to April. And the broad measure is down the most, from 16.2% to 15.4%. That’s a huge shift, so there are some heavy seasonal factors involved.

Then, there is the actual number of persons unemployed. According to the household survey, this went down a lot, 650,000. What’s more is the actual number of persons employed increased from March to April. Again, this data is clearly at odds with the seasonally-adjusted data, so this is obviously due to seasonal workers returning to work.

Here is the historical data. You can see a huge dip from March to April pretty much every year due to seasonality. Does anyone have a peg on which professions are causing this? By the way, the only year that the actual number of unemployed increased from March to April in the last 30 years was 1980:

Source
Employment Situation Summary – U.S. Department of Labor

About Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty years of business experience. He is also a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages, a skill he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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