Comments on: Consumers ‘do believe in the green shoot story’ http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html a finance news and opinion site Fri, 12 Mar 2010 13:31:57 +0000 hourly 1 By: America’s Incredible Consumer Confidence Index - Credit Writedownshttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-9744 America’s Incredible Consumer Confidence Index - Credit Writedowns Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:04:13 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-9744 [...] the reading jumping over 20 points from 51.0 to 72.3.  That is a gargantuan one-month move.-Consumers ‘do believe in the green shoot story’, May 2009Where are things in the U.S today?  Expectations are still elevated, but the Present [...] [...] the reading jumping over 20 points from 51.0 to 72.3.  That is a gargantuan one-month move.-Consumers ‘do believe in the green shoot story’, May 2009Where are things in the U.S today?  Expectations are still elevated, but the Present [...]

]]> By: Major selloff coming? - Credit Writedownshttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-9563 Major selloff coming? - Credit Writedowns Fri, 29 Jan 2010 15:02:50 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-9563 [...] stick with high quality over junk, despite the huge run up in risky stocks. Personally, I saw June as an important period on the data front, because if data disappointed, shares would sell off. Otherwise the bear market [...] [...] stick with high quality over junk, despite the huge run up in risky stocks. Personally, I saw June as an important period on the data front, because if data disappointed, shares would sell off. Otherwise the bear market [...]

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-8020 Edward Harrison Wed, 27 May 2009 08:39:34 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-8020 I guess that's why this blog is called 'Credit Writedowns,' because I don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. If you are going to critique my posts, at least write something that makes sense. <br><br>I also suggest you read a few more posts on the site first.<br><br>You might want to start here:<br><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about" rel="nofollow">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about</a><br><br>And just because we see a bear market rally with more upside potential, doesn't mean that the rally is based on fundamentals or high volume. It is still a rally as anyone who is short will painfully tell you. I guess that's why this blog is called 'Credit Writedowns,' because I don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. If you are going to critique my posts, at least write something that makes sense.

I also suggest you read a few more posts on the site first.

You might want to start here:
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about

And just because we see a bear market rally with more upside potential, doesn't mean that the rally is based on fundamentals or high volume. It is still a rally as anyone who is short will painfully tell you.

]]> By: Bob_in_MAhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-8019 Bob_in_MA Wed, 27 May 2009 07:23:05 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-8019 Because you made the completely spurious claim: "If you were wondering whether the powerful market rally from March has legs, this should come as proof that it does."<br><br>It did nothing of the sort. That the market jumped on such simple-minded reasoning, on very low volume, would tend to illustrate how this rally has no legs, but has been built like a house of cards: a lot of thin data points, repeated and echoed, as support for ever greater supposition.<br><br>You don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. The fact that a particular data stream ticks up for a month or two is not going to change the equation. Because you made the completely spurious claim: “If you were wondering whether the powerful market rally from March has legs, this should come as proof that it does.”

It did nothing of the sort. That the market jumped on such simple-minded reasoning, on very low volume, would tend to illustrate how this rally has no legs, but has been built like a house of cards: a lot of thin data points, repeated and echoed, as support for ever greater supposition.

You don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. The fact that a particular data stream ticks up for a month or two is not going to change the equation.

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-8018 Edward Harrison Wed, 27 May 2009 05:30:09 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-8018 <blockquote>But, the present situation is terrible, 28.9. It is expectations that are through the roof with the reading jumping over 20 points from 51.0 to 72.3. That is a gargantuan one-month move.<br><br>Let’s remember that confidence does not translate into consumption, especially as most of the uptick here was in consumer expectations.</blockquote><br><br>Why you think this post is positive spin is beyond me. Clearly, the rally is way ahead of itself and poor data in June could mean a major market setback.

But, the present situation is terrible, 28.9. It is expectations that are through the roof with the reading jumping over 20 points from 51.0 to 72.3. That is a gargantuan one-month move.

Let’s remember that confidence does not translate into consumption, especially as most of the uptick here was in consumer expectations.

Why you think this post is positive spin is beyond me. Clearly, the rally is way ahead of itself and poor data in June could mean a major market setback.

]]> By: Bob_in_MAhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-8017 Bob_in_MA Wed, 27 May 2009 02:45:29 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-8017 "If you were wondering whether the powerful market rally from March has legs, this should come as proof that it does."<br><br>No, not really. One of the main reasons that confidence rose is that the stock market is up. And then the stock market rises on the news.... doh!<br><br>You, and much of the business press, are trying way to hard to create reasons for a rebound out of very small beer. “If you were wondering whether the powerful market rally from March has legs, this should come as proof that it does.”

No, not really. One of the main reasons that confidence rose is that the stock market is up. And then the stock market rises on the news…. doh!

You, and much of the business press, are trying way to hard to create reasons for a rebound out of very small beer.

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5637 Edward Harrison Wed, 27 May 2009 02:39:34 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5637 I guess that's why this blog is called 'Credit Writedowns,' because I don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. If you are going to critique my posts, at least write something that makes sense. <br><br>I also suggest you read a few more posts on the site first.<br><br>You might want to start here:<br><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about" rel="nofollow">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about</a><br><br>And just because we see a bear market rally with more upside potential, doesn't mean that the rally is based on fundamentals or high volume. It is still a rally as anyone who is short will painfully tell you. I guess that's why this blog is called 'Credit Writedowns,' because I don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. If you are going to critique my posts, at least write something that makes sense.

I also suggest you read a few more posts on the site first.

You might want to start here:
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about

And just because we see a bear market rally with more upside potential, doesn't mean that the rally is based on fundamentals or high volume. It is still a rally as anyone who is short will painfully tell you.

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5335 Edward Harrison Wed, 27 May 2009 01:39:34 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5335 I guess that's why this blog is called 'Credit Writedowns,' because I don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. If you are going to critique my posts, at least write something that makes sense. <br><br>I also suggest you read a few more posts on the site first.<br><br>You might want to start here:<br><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about" rel="nofollow">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about</a> I guess that's why this blog is called 'Credit Writedowns,' because I don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. If you are going to critique my posts, at least write something that makes sense.

I also suggest you read a few more posts on the site first.

You might want to start here:
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/about

]]> By: Bob_in_MAhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5334 Bob_in_MA Wed, 27 May 2009 00:23:05 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5334 Because you made the completely spurious claim: "If you were wondering whether the powerful market rally from March has legs, this should come as proof that it does."<br><br>It did nothing of the sort. That the market jumped on such simple-minded reasoning, on very low volume, would tend to illustrate how this rally has no legs, but has been built like a house of cards: a lot of thin data points, repeated and echoed, as support for ever greater supposition.<br><br>You don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. The fact that a particular data stream ticks up for a month or two is not going to change the equation. Because you made the completely spurious claim: “If you were wondering whether the powerful market rally from March has legs, this should come as proof that it does.”

It did nothing of the sort. That the market jumped on such simple-minded reasoning, on very low volume, would tend to illustrate how this rally has no legs, but has been built like a house of cards: a lot of thin data points, repeated and echoed, as support for ever greater supposition.

You don't seem to grasp what the situation is, a massive deleveraging environment that will go on for years. The fact that a particular data stream ticks up for a month or two is not going to change the equation.

]]> By: Edward Harrisonhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5331 Edward Harrison Tue, 26 May 2009 22:30:09 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5331 <blockquote>But, the present situation is terrible, 28.9. It is expectations that are through the roof with the reading jumping over 20 points from 51.0 to 72.3. That is a gargantuan one-month move.<br><br>Let’s remember that confidence does not translate into consumption, especially as most of the uptick here was in consumer expectations.<blockquote><br><br>Why you think this post is positive spin is beyond me. Clearly, the rally is way ahead of itself and poor data in June could mean a major market setback.</blockquote></blockquote>

But, the present situation is terrible, 28.9. It is expectations that are through the roof with the reading jumping over 20 points from 51.0 to 72.3. That is a gargantuan one-month move.

Let’s remember that confidence does not translate into consumption, especially as most of the uptick here was in consumer expectations.

Why you think this post is positive spin is beyond me. Clearly, the rally is way ahead of itself and poor data in June could mean a major market setback.

]]> By: Bob_in_MAhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5323 Bob_in_MA Tue, 26 May 2009 19:45:29 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/consumers-do-believe-in-the-green-shoot-story.html#comment-5323 "If you were wondering whether the powerful market rally from March has legs, this should come as proof that it does."<br><br>No, not really. One of the main reasons that confidence rose is that the stock market is up. And then the stock market rises on the news.... doh!<br><br>You, and much of the business press, are trying way to hard to create reasons for a rebound out of very small beer. “If you were wondering whether the powerful market rally from March has legs, this should come as proof that it does.”

No, not really. One of the main reasons that confidence rose is that the stock market is up. And then the stock market rises on the news…. doh!

You, and much of the business press, are trying way to hard to create reasons for a rebound out of very small beer.

]]>