For example, the rise peaked in Dec 2001 a month after the recession ended. In 1991, it peaked at 1.6% in Mar, May and Jun. The recession ended in March. In 1982, it peaked in July while the recession ended in November.

I could site many other examples. But, the overall gist of the data is that even unemployment, which is a lagging indicator, stops rising as quickly — signaling an end to recession.

If I saw the now 1.7% change in unemployment falling to 1.4% over the next few months, it would signal to me that things might actually be getting better.

Thoughts?

Also, I appreciate your analysis of where unemployment is headed by comparing with earlier recessions. It’s a good way to forecast for the near- to mid-term, if structural aspects of the economy (eg–huge decline in manufacturing) don’t alter the basis for such a comparison.

Now for the hard part: Employment/unemployment is generally considered a lagging or (at best) a coincident indicator of the economy. Have you tried any successful methods to extrapolate your outlook for employment for the future health of the economy, especially a turnaround?

OK, it’s Sunday, you don’t need to answer that, but I’d be interested in yours or others attempts to use real labor data to look at the broader economy.

I’m curious at to why no one makes the connection between rampant immigration (both legal and illegal) and accelerating job losses. No other country has such a liberal policy of ‘let them in at all costs.’

Legal immigration = 1 million/yr +several hundred thousand temp visas (h1b, L1, etc.).

If we simply halt all immigration for 1 year we can wipe out what are self inflicted job losses. I’m all for immigration in the good times, but it seems we are over-loading a sinking life boat.

And please, don’t mention ‘the skills shortage’ myth, billionaires like Gates propagandize.