Comments on: Jobless claims: 654,000 means flow is static, stock is up

By: Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:09:51 +0000

Ranger Turtle, that is definitely the case about the continuing claims numbers going up. What is more important is what Mac points out: seasonal adjustments are distorting the data. This is something I have noticed since say December because there are huge seasonal adjustments from December-March.

Starting next month we should get a more accurate picture of what’s happening. In the meantime, the NSA data is the best gauge of events.

By: Ranger Turtle

Ranger Turtle — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:05:04 +0000

I don’t have the data, but I think that extending unemployment recently must have an effect on the acceleration of the continuing claims number.
Like Mac & Edward above though, I think the numbers are low.

By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » Weekly Jobless Claims Jump To 654,000

Donklephant » Blog Archive » Weekly Jobless Claims Jump To 654,000 — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:00:50 +0000

[...] as I’ve been saying recently, the numbers aren’t slowing down and Credit Writedowns’ Edward Harrison explains why… My take on the figures goes to the concept of stock and flow. The stock is the number of [...]

By: Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 13:55:18 +0000

Mac,

you and I are on the same page here. The seasonally-adjusted data is fooling people into thinking the claims data is lower than it actually is. I have been detailing this for weeks now. It does look like the initial claims data is finally playing a bit of catch-up. But, the continuing claims data is still very deceptive. I think most people will be surprised when we print 9% so soon.

By: Mac

Mac — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 13:43:46 +0000

Think all attention should be paid to the N SA data set now given this is a once in 50 year type occurance and any sseasonal effect was swept away couple 100,000s ago.
The NSA is now over 700,000 and obviously uni-directional.