Comments on: The bullish argument for the global economy http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/the-bullish-argument-for-the-global-economy.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Jeff http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/the-bullish-argument-for-the-global-economy.html#comment-3897 Jeff Sun, 15 Feb 2009 18:15:58 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=6024#comment-3897 I'm not sure if the stimulus will help that much in the current economic environment. Economies go through cycles and recession is part of the cycle. I read a good article on the history of cycles at, I think, http://www.recessioninfocenter.com I’m not sure if the stimulus will help that much in the current economic environment. Economies go through cycles and recession is part of the cycle. I read a good article on the history of cycles at, I think,

http://www.recessioninfocenter.com

]]> By: Sobers http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/the-bullish-argument-for-the-global-economy.html#comment-3880 Sobers Sat, 14 Feb 2009 20:12:02 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=6024#comment-3880 Wishful thinking I'm afraid. There is a least one more downward lurch in this crisis yet. Do you really think that the largest global credit bubble since the 1930s (or maybe ever) is going to pop and all we are going to suffer is a fall in house prices and a (relatively) small increase in unemployment? The whole western economic model is built upon debt. Debt for private individuals to buy stuff they didn't really need, and probably couldn't afford. Debt for governments to pay for social payments that the underlying earning power of the economy cannot sustain. Debt for companies, not just to finance expansion, but merely to exist. This is a merry-go-round that cannot continue forever. I feel it has hit the buffers now, and the very basis of western life will have to change. That change is going to be more profound and unsettling than anything that has happened in this crisis so far. There will be a time to buy in the markets, but that is when NO-ONE is positive. When the only thing people want is gold and a gun. That is the time to buy. We are nowhere near that yet. Wishful thinking I’m afraid. There is a least one more downward lurch in this crisis yet. Do you really think that the largest global credit bubble since the 1930s (or maybe ever) is going to pop and all we are going to suffer is a fall in house prices and a (relatively) small increase in unemployment?

The whole western economic model is built upon debt. Debt for private individuals to buy stuff they didn’t really need, and probably couldn’t afford. Debt for governments to pay for social payments that the underlying earning power of the economy cannot sustain. Debt for companies, not just to finance expansion, but merely to exist. This is a merry-go-round that cannot continue forever. I feel it has hit the buffers now, and the very basis of western life will have to change. That change is going to be more profound and unsettling than anything that has happened in this crisis so far.

There will be a time to buy in the markets, but that is when NO-ONE is positive. When the only thing people want is gold and a gun. That is the time to buy. We are nowhere near that yet.

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