Comments on: Stephen Roach: Downturn in Asia less severe, but recovery later http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/stephen-roach-downturn-in-asia-less-severe-but-recovery-later.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: The Wikinvest Daily Angle » Stephen Roach: Downturn in Asia less severe, but recovery later http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/stephen-roach-downturn-in-asia-less-severe-but-recovery-later.html#comment-3726 The Wikinvest Daily Angle » Stephen Roach: Downturn in Asia less severe, but recovery later Wed, 11 Feb 2009 22:18:21 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=5956#comment-3726 [...] Today’s Daily Angle comes from Wikinvest Wire member Edward Harrison of CreditWritedowns.com. You can read the full article on Edward’s blog. [...] [...] Today’s Daily Angle comes from Wikinvest Wire member Edward Harrison of CreditWritedowns.com. You can read the full article on Edward’s blog. [...]

]]> By: Stevie b. http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/stephen-roach-downturn-in-asia-less-severe-but-recovery-later.html#comment-3710 Stevie b. Wed, 11 Feb 2009 14:26:04 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=5956#comment-3710 Ed - if I didn't know it was Roach, I'd have treated this with a massive pinch of salt. However any views I had on China & the $ in particular now need real re-thinking, although I guess remaining the world currency doesn't mean it can't be weak at the same time - even though it may be in good company over time in the race to the bottom of the global currency league. Wonder what his views are on gold..... Ed – if I didn’t know it was Roach, I’d have treated this with a massive pinch of salt. However any views I had on China & the $ in particular now need real re-thinking, although I guess remaining the world currency doesn’t mean it can’t be weak at the same time – even though it may be in good company over time in the race to the bottom of the global currency league. Wonder what his views are on gold…..

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/stephen-roach-downturn-in-asia-less-severe-but-recovery-later.html#comment-3707 Edward Harrison Wed, 11 Feb 2009 12:47:32 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=5956#comment-3707 Tom, I am skeptical about his comments on that score. However, I do have great respect for Roach's analytical insight and his deep knowledge of Asia. One should be very careful and have a very rigorous rebuttal if one wants to dispute Stephen Roach on macroeconomic policy. Perhaps the key difference now is that Asian economies, especially China are providing massive fiscal stimulus to cushion the downfall. They can do so much more credibly than the U.S. or the U.K. given their surplus position. This means that Asia's downturn can indeed be less severe. However, the Asian economies do need t spur domestic demand growth in order to have a sustainable recovery. This will take time and that seems to mesh with Roach's view out a long recovery time frame. Whether that recovery is later than the West remains to be seen. At the end of the day, if and when domestic demand becomes a centerpiece of Asian economic policy, we will see a shift away from the west and a wholesale rise of Asia. That is bullish for Asia over the longer term. Let me know your thoughts as well, Tom. Cheers, Ed Tom,

I am skeptical about his comments on that score. However, I do have great respect for Roach’s analytical insight and his deep knowledge of Asia. One should be very careful and have a very rigorous rebuttal if one wants to dispute Stephen Roach on macroeconomic policy.

Perhaps the key difference now is that Asian economies, especially China are providing massive fiscal stimulus to cushion the downfall. They can do so much more credibly than the U.S. or the U.K. given their surplus position. This means that Asia’s downturn can indeed be less severe.

However, the Asian economies do need t spur domestic demand growth in order to have a sustainable recovery. This will take time and that seems to mesh with Roach’s view out a long recovery time frame. Whether that recovery is later than the West remains to be seen.

At the end of the day, if and when domestic demand becomes a centerpiece of Asian economic policy, we will see a shift away from the west and a wholesale rise of Asia. That is bullish for Asia over the longer term.

Let me know your thoughts as well, Tom.

Cheers,

Ed

]]> By: Tom Lindmark http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/stephen-roach-downturn-in-asia-less-severe-but-recovery-later.html#comment-3696 Tom Lindmark Wed, 11 Feb 2009 05:11:21 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=5956#comment-3696 Interesting post. How do you square his comments with the Great Depression experience of the surplus countries having suffered the most? Interesting post. How do you square his comments with the Great Depression experience of the surplus countries having suffered the most?

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