January 2009

It's a done deal. The Citigroup - Morgan Stanley dance is now over. The price for a 51% stake Smith Barney was $2.7 Billion. The seems like a very low valuation here but I haven't looked through the terms of the deal in depth. This is…

A friend living in Latvia wrote that he was "stunned by the chaos that broke out in Riga this evening." I had heard absolutely nothing about it until he told me. Apparently, a peaceful protest outside Parliament turned bloody when the…

Vikram Pandit understands the seriousness of the challenge ahead, if Citi wants to remain a going concern. He must break the firm up and end Citi's disastrous experiment with becoming a financial supermarket.

There is no way to look past the way that the U.S. TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) has been administered and not understand we are seeing crony capitalism at work. One only need look at the way the British are doing things to see a…

Today, the Seattle Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) has admitted that it is on the verge of collapse and may need to avail itself of conservatorship, much as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did previously. One should see this announcement as a…

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech at the London School of Economics today in which he outlined the measures the Federal Reserve was prepared to take in order to deal with the financial crisis. Of particular note, Bernanke…

Earnings season has finally begun, with Alcoa leading the way. They produced a major loss yesterday as expected. The question going forward is whether we will see any upside surprises. If we do, that might support stocks. I am not expecting…

I think this video is an example of the most self-reflective you will see the current U.S. President George W. Bush become. In it, he talks about his mistakes, grappling in front of the camera with how historians may look back on his stint…

We are in a secular bear market. What this means for many pensioners or for many about to become pensioners is great uncertainty about the quality of their retirement. I expect this uncertainty to translate into anger regarding the move…

The earnings season starts soon and we shall see how much the latest upturn lasts. I expect stocks to decline this year. Remember, there was a huge rally in 1930 before reality set in. I do see today as similar. That's my commentary for…