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	<title>Comments on: If the Fed were a commercial bank, it might be declared insolvent</title>
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	<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html</link>
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		<title>By: John Creighton</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-1667</link>
		<dc:creator>John Creighton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Dec 2008 03:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-1667</guid>
		<description>I&#180;m looking at the federal reserve balance sheet now. 
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Curren...&lt;/a&gt;
 
If I subtract assets from liability I get: 45,304 million dollars. Which is roughly what is in the above table. As for the capital requirements. Remember that banks are only required to capitalize against their risk based assets under biss. 
&lt;a href=&quot;http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/capitalrequirements.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/capitalrequirements.h...&lt;/a&gt;
 
Since most of the feds capital is government securities (e.g. treasuries) which is considered to be zero risk they are not required to capitalize against it under BIS. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&acute;m looking at the federal reserve balance sheet now.<br />
<a  href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/" target="_blank" class="external"></a><a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Curren.." rel="nofollow">http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Curren..</a>.</p>
<p>If I subtract assets from liability I get: 45,304 million dollars. Which is roughly what is in the above table. As for the capital requirements. Remember that banks are only required to capitalize against their risk based assets under biss.<br />
<a  href="http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/capitalrequirements.html" target="_blank" class="external"></a><a href="http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/capitalrequirements.h.." rel="nofollow">http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/capitalrequirements.h..</a>.</p>
<p>Since most of the feds capital is government securities (e.g. treasuries) which is considered to be zero risk they are not required to capitalize against it under BIS.</p>
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		<title>By: Edward Harrison</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-1577</link>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Dec 2008 18:59:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-1577</guid>
		<description>John, treasuries are considered the &#039;risk-free asset and are the lowest yielding, highest liquidity financial asset the Fed owns.  Traditionally, treasuries were the majority of the Fed&#039;s asset base. So, when it came time to withdraw liquidity they would sell treasuries as they had plenty of them.

See &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/chart-of-day-fed-balance-sheet.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;my post on the Fed&#039;s Balance Sheet&lt;/a&gt; to see what I mean.

Ostensibly, the Fed could soon sell the dodgy assets they are now about to buy in order to reduce liquidity.  In a short period of time, they should have lots of these assets to sell.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John, treasuries are considered the &#8216;risk-free asset and are the lowest yielding, highest liquidity financial asset the Fed owns.  Traditionally, treasuries were the majority of the Fed&#8217;s asset base. So, when it came time to withdraw liquidity they would sell treasuries as they had plenty of them.</p>
<p>See <a  href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/chart-of-day-fed-balance-sheet.html" rel="nofollow">my post on the Fed&#8217;s Balance Sheet</a> to see what I mean.</p>
<p>Ostensibly, the Fed could soon sell the dodgy assets they are now about to buy in order to reduce liquidity.  In a short period of time, they should have lots of these assets to sell.</p>
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		<title>By: John Creighton</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-1474</link>
		<dc:creator>John Creighton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 06:52:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-1474</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not sure why selling treasuries are the best way to mop up extra liquidity in an inflationary situation. Sure they temporary take money out of the system but it has to be paid back at a later date. Their also highly liquid and can be sold on the secondary markets. If you truely wanted to take money out of the system to combat inflation wouldn&#039;t you want to sell a physical asset like gold or property?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not sure why selling treasuries are the best way to mop up extra liquidity in an inflationary situation. Sure they temporary take money out of the system but it has to be paid back at a later date. Their also highly liquid and can be sold on the secondary markets. If you truely wanted to take money out of the system to combat inflation wouldn&#8217;t you want to sell a physical asset like gold or property?</p>
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		<title>By: US News Round-up: Economy &#171; Hope2012</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-1233</link>
		<dc:creator>US News Round-up: Economy &#171; Hope2012</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 13:39:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-1233</guid>
		<description>[...] If the Fed were a commercial bank, it might be declared insolvent - Credit WriteDowns 11/29/08  [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] If the Fed were a commercial bank, it might be declared insolvent &#8211; Credit WriteDowns 11/29/08  [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Kryzys Blog Instytutu Misesa &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Kiedy USA zbankrutuj??</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-926</link>
		<dc:creator>Kryzys Blog Instytutu Misesa &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Kiedy USA zbankrutuj??</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:19:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-926</guid>
		<description>[...] A przy okazji ciekawy tekst, gdyby Fed by? komercyjnym bankiem, to og?osi?by bankructwo. Dodaj wpis [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] A przy okazji ciekawy tekst, gdyby Fed by? komercyjnym bankiem, to og?osi?by bankructwo. Dodaj wpis [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Edward Harrison</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-897</link>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2008 00:17:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-897</guid>
		<description>anthony, you are right on the money.  If we could all create our own money, we would be able to inflate our way out of debt.  As yo indicate this is what the Fed certainly plans to do as it has few other options available.  The question is whether they will be successful in getting banks to lend because right now the money multiplier is contracting and the flood of money is increasing the monetary base, but just leading to a spike in excess reserves.

I do not think they will be successful.  However, if they are, consumer price inflation will certainly be an issue.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>anthony, you are right on the money.  If we could all create our own money, we would be able to inflate our way out of debt.  As yo indicate this is what the Fed certainly plans to do as it has few other options available.  The question is whether they will be successful in getting banks to lend because right now the money multiplier is contracting and the flood of money is increasing the monetary base, but just leading to a spike in excess reserves.</p>
<p>I do not think they will be successful.  However, if they are, consumer price inflation will certainly be an issue.</p>
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		<title>By: Anthony J. Alfidi</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-893</link>
		<dc:creator>Anthony J. Alfidi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:01:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-893</guid>
		<description>One crucial difference between the Fed and any commercial bank is that the Fed can create its own capital by simply printing money.  Of course, this debases the value of its existing assets, but via inflation it also monetizes away some liabilities.  Viola!  Capital inadequacy solved with a devalued currrency.  BTW, there won&#039;t be any mopping up of inflation.  Inflation is the Fed&#039;s proposed solution.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One crucial difference between the Fed and any commercial bank is that the Fed can create its own capital by simply printing money.  Of course, this debases the value of its existing assets, but via inflation it also monetizes away some liabilities.  Viola!  Capital inadequacy solved with a devalued currrency.  BTW, there won&#8217;t be any mopping up of inflation.  Inflation is the Fed&#8217;s proposed solution.</p>
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		<title>By: Edward Harrison</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-870</link>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Nov 2008 21:48:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-870</guid>
		<description>Stevie, those are two very good articles and I will link out to them in a future post.  The Stephen Jen analysis is certainly right on regarding the unwillingness of banks to lend and a reduction in the money multiplier.  This is one reason that easing will have significantly fewer stimulative effects than in 2001.

But, your question has to do with why Jen thinks removing QE will be easy.  I will have to look at the article he referenced from Minneapolis Fed Chairman Stern and see what is in there.  I sense you are skeptical.  I am as well.  If the Fed restarts the economy through massive quantitative easing, they will need to buy all that money back up by selling treasuries before inflation gets embedded in the system.  We saw this past year with commodity prices how quickly inflation can become a problem.  Given the massive amount of liquidity they have unleashed, it is reasonable to think inflation could take off if they reflate the economy.

As for the shortage of capital at the Fed, the crux of it is that the Fed has ballooned their balance sheet without a commensurate increase in their underlying capital base.  And given they have much riskier assets on their balance sheet, this makes more capital all the more necessary.  To get back to the 1997 capital to asset ratios, the Fed would need an additional $48 billion in capital.  This demonstrates how many assets they have bought.

I will let you know what I find out about the Minnesota Fed Chairman&#039;s comments and see if this helps us understand Jen any more.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stevie, those are two very good articles and I will link out to them in a future post.  The Stephen Jen analysis is certainly right on regarding the unwillingness of banks to lend and a reduction in the money multiplier.  This is one reason that easing will have significantly fewer stimulative effects than in 2001.</p>
<p>But, your question has to do with why Jen thinks removing QE will be easy.  I will have to look at the article he referenced from Minneapolis Fed Chairman Stern and see what is in there.  I sense you are skeptical.  I am as well.  If the Fed restarts the economy through massive quantitative easing, they will need to buy all that money back up by selling treasuries before inflation gets embedded in the system.  We saw this past year with commodity prices how quickly inflation can become a problem.  Given the massive amount of liquidity they have unleashed, it is reasonable to think inflation could take off if they reflate the economy.</p>
<p>As for the shortage of capital at the Fed, the crux of it is that the Fed has ballooned their balance sheet without a commensurate increase in their underlying capital base.  And given they have much riskier assets on their balance sheet, this makes more capital all the more necessary.  To get back to the 1997 capital to asset ratios, the Fed would need an additional $48 billion in capital.  This demonstrates how many assets they have bought.</p>
<p>I will let you know what I find out about the Minnesota Fed Chairman&#8217;s comments and see if this helps us understand Jen any more.</p>
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		<title>By: Stevie b.</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-856</link>
		<dc:creator>Stevie b.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Nov 2008 07:50:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-856</guid>
		<description>&quot;The risk is that they won’t be able or willing to mop up all this excess liquidity when it comes time to head off inflation a few years down the road.”

Whilst I don&#039;t understand this $48 billion shortage-of-capital business (surely a drop in the ocean. Someone somewhere - the Treasury, the Chinese? - can just give &#039;em the money or something, can&#039;t they...?!), the end game from the above quote is the 64,000 dollar (how quaint that now seems!) question.

For me, there are some really interesting comments from Rebecca Wilder that have helped my understanding of this inflation/deflation/quantitative easing issue: http://www.newsneconomics.com/2008/11/monetization-sterilization-whats-going.html

Also comments from Stephen Jen yesterday at
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor7238

where he says amongst a lot of other things:
&quot;Our guess is that, while dealing with a liquidity trap is difficult, removing stimulus when macro conditions normalise should not be a major problem for the Fed. &quot;

I am a bit amazed by this as no reason is given why removal shouldn&#039;t be a problem, apparently regardless of the type/size of stimulus or rate of any eventual pick-up in velocity. Any thoughts Ed?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The risk is that they won’t be able or willing to mop up all this excess liquidity when it comes time to head off inflation a few years down the road.”</p>
<p>Whilst I don&#8217;t understand this $48 billion shortage-of-capital business (surely a drop in the ocean. Someone somewhere &#8211; the Treasury, the Chinese? &#8211; can just give &#8216;em the money or something, can&#8217;t they&#8230;?!), the end game from the above quote is the 64,000 dollar (how quaint that now seems!) question.</p>
<p>For me, there are some really interesting comments from Rebecca Wilder that have helped my understanding of this inflation/deflation/quantitative easing issue: <a  href="http://www.newsneconomics.com/2008/11/monetization-sterilization-whats-going.html" rel="nofollow" class="external">http://www.newsneconomics.com/2008/11/monetization-sterilization-whats-going.html</a></p>
<p>Also comments from Stephen Jen yesterday at<br />
<a  href="http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor7238" rel="nofollow" class="external">http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor7238</a></p>
<p>where he says amongst a lot of other things:<br />
&#8220;Our guess is that, while dealing with a liquidity trap is difficult, removing stimulus when macro conditions normalise should not be a major problem for the Fed. &#8221;</p>
<p>I am a bit amazed by this as no reason is given why removal shouldn&#8217;t be a problem, apparently regardless of the type/size of stimulus or rate of any eventual pick-up in velocity. Any thoughts Ed?</p>
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		<title>By: Alex</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/if-the-fed-were-a-commercial-bank-it-might-be-declared-insolvent.html/comment-page-1#comment-847</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Nov 2008 04:52:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=1628#comment-847</guid>
		<description>I guess we can only hope that the Fed and Treasury are smart enough to profit from their investments. Just as the government saw a $660 million profit from its bailout of Chrysler in the seventies, the warrants and preferred stock that is part of the bailouts may be worth something in the not-so-distant future. There seems to be a risk-reward expectation that is allowing the wild speculation and out of kilter capital ratios to go unchecked. There has been a good on-going commentary on the bailouts at:  http://www.thebailoutblog.com</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess we can only hope that the Fed and Treasury are smart enough to profit from their investments. Just as the government saw a $660 million profit from its bailout of Chrysler in the seventies, the warrants and preferred stock that is part of the bailouts may be worth something in the not-so-distant future. There seems to be a risk-reward expectation that is allowing the wild speculation and out of kilter capital ratios to go unchecked. There has been a good on-going commentary on the bailouts at:  <a  href="http://www.thebailoutblog.com" rel="nofollow" class="external">http://www.thebailoutblog.com</a></p>
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