May 2008

This in from the Times today: Bradford & Bingley is in big trouble. They are trying to do a rights issue and issue a profit warning at the same time. Can anyone tell me how one gets shareholders to pony up another 88p to buy a stock…

I don't trust the U.S. government's inflation number for measuring real GDP. The annual rate of inflation in this measurement is only 2.2%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running at a 4.0% clip. That's as large a differential as…

The GDP number was revised upwards from 0.6% growth to 0.9% growth. However, what is most interesting is the GDP implicit price deflator. This is the index number the BEA uses to get from nominal GDP to real GDP, the inflation-adjusted…

I was just reviewing the Case-Shiller local metropolitan indices and saw that as the decline gets steeper, each of the 20 markets is reverting back to price levels 3 and 4 years in the past. So, here's what I have on each metro area as of…

Double, double, oil and trouble Thursday, May 29, 2008 9:41 AM Is it 'peak oil' or a speculative bubble? Neither, really. AFTER oil hit its recent record of $135 a barrel, consumers and politicians started to lash out in every direction.…

Bloomberg News reported that German retail sales for April were disappointing for the second month in a row. Retail sales growth is negative in Germany, adjusted for inflation.The reason: inflation. Consumers in Germany are losing…

The U.S. Dollar (USD) seems to have stabilized against most major floating currencies. This includes the British Pound, The Euro, The Canadian, Aussie and New Zealand Dollar, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. However, many market…

The risks going forward for financial institutions and their capital base are large and growing. The blog CalculatedRisk has reported on yet another story that should give chills to bankers. This one is very significant: Chapter 7…

The bloggers over at Calculated Risk have reported on a story making the rounds in the Internet. This story involves S&P's downgrade of Alt-A Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBSs). The crux of the matter is that S&P…

UPDATE: The latest chart on U.S. consumer credit growth is here. I have been focusing on debt as a primary contributor to the slump the U.S. is experiencing. We've seen skyrocketing Debt-to-GDP and Mortgage Debt. Now, I want to look at…