Here is yet another post from early last year which presages all of the problems we are seeing today. As I have often written, the fake recovery is just an attempt to paper over these problems. It won’t work. Where Ireland, Switzerland, Austria or the Baltics were front and center in February 2009, Greece, Spain and Portugal are now. But don’t think those other problems have gone away. As with Northern Rock, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, contagion spreads to the weakest link – which either passes the test (usually with external aid) or collapses. And then it’s on to the next weakest link. That’s how crises work. This one is no different.

This September 2009 post still describes my general view on the U.S. economy. If I wrote it today, I would be more bearish medium-term because it is obvious that in 2010 fiscal and monetary policy will become less supportive of recovery. Political pressures to remove fiscal and monetary stimulus are too much to bear. As a result, I give a double dip recession slightly better odds than a multi-year recovery now. But the analysis framing my thinking is largely the same.

In my view, there is little chance the Germans are going to allow the EU to ride to the rescue of the Greeks. All of the bailout chatter does not really consider the domestic political constraints in Germany.
First, a bit of quick background.  Germany was traumatized by two world wars and an intervening period [...]

This is how Stephen Roach describes the economy despite the largest monetary and stimulus in global history. Below is a TV interview Roach recently did on CNBC TV-18 as a video in two parts with the linked transcript at the bottom.  Roach says that historical precedent demonstrates recessions precipitated by large private sector debt burdens [...]

Given my post on Jim Rogers’ doubting Chanos’ knowledge about China, I thought it appropriate to post the latest Chanos interview on the China property bubble. 
This call by Chanos is really setting us up for some seriously entrenched camps of pro-China bulls (like Rogers)against China sceptics (like Chanos, but also like Andy Xie). Is [...]

The money line comes right at the end.

One of the larger problems in the unfolding meltdown in Greece is the fraud apparently perpetrated by past Greek governments to conceal their true levels of debt. This is having a very adverse effect on Greek credit spreads to (German) Bunds. 
10-year Greek bonds are trading at 6.67%, while German 10-years are at 3.14%, a [...]

The following link goes to an hour-long video from the Russia Forum 2010 featuring famed investors and market watchers Hugh Hendry and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Marc Faber was the moderator. The session is “Investments: Where is the Money in 2010 – What are the Risks?" from the second-day of the three day forum.
 

 
Source
Session Video [...]

No he didn’t. 
Jim Rogers, the bow-tie wearing Quantum Fund co-founder and Sino-enthusiast, has recently implied Jim Chanos doesn’t know China from a hole in the ground. Rogers is not happy about the recent bearish pronouncements coming from Enron-slayer and famed short-seller Jim Chanos.  In what looks to be a rumble in the jungle of  [...]

Commenting about the recent Wall Street Journal article “Housing rebound in Canada spurs talk of new bubble,” Rolfe Winkler of Reuters says
Last week Paul Krugman toasted the sobriety of Canadian banks. Among other things, he said that low rates aren’t enough to cause a bubble since Canadian rates are low and, well, they don’t have [...]

I first featured some commentary by Fred Sheehan in November on a muni post The coming collapse of the municipal bond market. Now Fred is back and he’s on the radio, talking with Jim Puplava about Sir Alan Greenspan this time.  It will give you a better view of Greenspan, the man, than some of [...]

FT.com – Speculators make 8bn bet against euro
Fair Game – A Financial Crisis That Just Keeps Moving – NYTimes.com
John Thain As CIT Chief: Savvy Move or Big Step Down? – Deal Journal – WSJ
FT.com – China sabre rattling risks starting trade war
Downloadable Album Costs More Than CD On Amazon – The [...]