• Europe: A plan to boost economy by cutting taxes

    By Andrea Terzi originally published at Social Europe and republished with consent of Author The anti-austerity vote in the European elections reflected two different kinds of discontent. One is a feeling of frustration, which is invigorating nationalism: the vote for “less Europe.” The other is a lack of confidence in current EU policies: the vote for “another Europe.” In both […]

    Europe: A plan to boost economy by cutting taxes
  • On Ukraine, the Indian mobile space and Abenomics

    Russia is signalling de-escalation in Ukraine, at least on economics
    The mobile battle is moving to India
    The limited window on Abenomics is closing

    On Ukraine, the Indian mobile space and Abenomics
  • Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

    Ukraine is at risk of becoming a failed state
    China’s growth is due to stimulus
    Japan’s macro figures worsen
    Microsoft’s strategy is weak
    Facebook is overvalued

    Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation
  • QE is fiscal policy

    By Frances Coppola A new paper by Johnston and Pugh of the legal department of the University of Sheffield discusses the legality and the effectiveness of QE and its relatives, including the ECB’s OMT “whatever it takes” promise. The background to this is the German Constitutional Court’s ruling that OMT amounts to monetary financing of government deficits and is therefore […]

    QE is fiscal policy
  • The EU weighs level three sanctions on Russia just as the European economy improves

    This is a long-form post on Ukraine. The big news, however, is from the European Union where the PMIs and a slew of other economic data came out today. The data showed the European economy improving broadly from its weakened recovery status. This will give the ECB room to take a wait and see approach. At the same time, the EU foreign ministers met yesterday and, according to reports are ready to impose heavier sanctions on Russia in the wake of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine. There’s a lot data to digest here so let me start off with the EU – Ukraine – Russia narrative.

    The EU weighs level three sanctions on Russia just as the European economy improves
  • Apple’s shift into China shows the company’s masterful execution

    Apple’s Q3 2014 earnings report yesterday was a mixed bag in terms of actual results. But from my perspective the results show a company that continues to execute its strategy well given the onslaught from cheaper handsets using the Android operating system. Apple posted a smaller-than-expected 6% gain in quarterly revenue due to sluggish growth in saturated markets in Europe and North America. But revenue in China surged 28% despite Apple’s premium pricing. Apple’s growth days are over in developed markets. But I have been upbeat about Apple’s results because of the China strategy and this report shows that Apple’s growth has some momentum, mainly because of that market. Some figures and comments below.

    Apple’s shift into China shows the company’s masterful execution
  • Ukraine, US subprime and the erosion of US financial hegemony

    Ukraine will have global impact
    More sanctions are coming but will be somewhat limited
    The global financial system is moving away from the US
    US auto subprime is going to blow up

    Ukraine, US subprime and the erosion of US financial hegemony
  • The political economy of the military conflict in Ukraine

    The geopolitical situation regarding the conflict in Ukraine has escalated considerably due to the downing of a passenger jet from the Netherlands to Malaysia. Given the visceral and gruesome nature of the events now unfolding, domestic political opinion throughout the West is now a major force in this conflict. However, given the political economy in Russia and the United States in particular, the potential for de-escalation is small. The potential for the conflict to now have wide-reaching economic impacts has grown. In the analysis below I explain how the political economy in the U.S. favours President Obama taking an increasingly hawkish position and how the political economy in Russia favours President Putin also maintaining an aggressive stance regarding Ukraine. In addition, the airline massacre also means that the EU will be galvanized into supporting tougher sanctions against Russia, with the potential of a tit-for-tat response.

    The political economy of the military conflict in Ukraine
  • Exogenous shocks

    As I write this, Twitter is going berserk with news of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur with 280 passengers and 15 crew having gone down in Ukrainian airspace. There is video and photo footage of the wreckage. And my heart goes out to friends and family of those onboard because they are learning about the tragedy […]

    Exogenous shocks
  • More on how loss socialization actually happens

    Michael Pettis has a good piece on debt and credit that I ran on the blog this morning. His thoughts on loss socialization are important not just in the context of China but also of other markets like Europe, the US, Canada and Australia where private debt levels have increased markedly. Some of this has resulted in phantom growth which […]

    More on how loss socialization actually happens

Members »

Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

25 July 2014 at 09:43

This week’s economic and market themes post has a lot of very different threads in it from all the previous parts of my life as a macro analyst: diplomacy and foreign affairs,...

Commentary »

On Ukraine, the Indian mobile space and Abenomics

On Ukraine, the Indian mobile space and Abenomics

28 July 2014 at 09:29

There a decent number of different threads running this morning. So I’ve decided to go with a multi-themed post this Monday instead of the usual mono-themed one. Russia...

Daily »

Links: 2014-07-29

Links: 2014-07-29

29 July 2014 at 07:02

Pentagon Plan Would Help Ukraine Target Rebel Missiles – NYTimes.com Smaller Banks’ Customers Hit Hard by Overdraft Fees – WSJ German broadcaster next to...

  • Links: 2014-07-28
    Links: 2014-07-28

    US says images show Russian attacks on Ukraine – FT.com Euro zone may discuss early Irish bailout repayment...

    28 July 2014 at 08:45
  • Links: 2014-07-25
    Links: 2014-07-25

    Atlantic City’s credit rating cut two steps to ‘junk’ status by Moody’s as casino crisis deepens | Financial...

    25 July 2014 at 08:20
  • Links: 2014-07-24
    Links: 2014-07-24

    FossaMail is a 64-bit Optimized, Faster Thunderbird Clone for Windows Facebook Beats In Q2 With $2.91 Billion In...

    24 July 2014 at 07:19
  • Links: 2014-07-23
    Links: 2014-07-23

    Split Obamacare Court Rulings Revive Health-Care Debate – Bloomberg EUobserver / Leaked paper: EU options...

    23 July 2014 at 07:42

All Content

Europe: A plan to boost economy by cutting taxes

Europe: A plan to boost economy by cutting taxes

By Andrea Terzi originally published at Social Europe and republished with consent of Author The anti-austerity vote in the European elections reflected two different kinds of discontent. One is a feeling of frustration, which is invigorating nationalism: the vote for “less Europe.” The other is a lack of confidence in current EU policies: the vote for “another Europe.” In both […]

Read more ›
Links: 2014-07-29

Links: 2014-07-29

News links for 29 Jul 2014

Read more ›
On Ukraine, the Indian mobile space and Abenomics

On Ukraine, the Indian mobile space and Abenomics

Russia is signalling de-escalation in Ukraine, at least on economics
The mobile battle is moving to India
The limited window on Abenomics is closing

Read more ›
Links: 2014-07-28

Links: 2014-07-28

News links for 28 Jul 2014

Read more ›
Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

Ukraine is at risk of becoming a failed state
China’s growth is due to stimulus
Japan’s macro figures worsen
Microsoft’s strategy is weak
Facebook is overvalued

Read more ›
Links: 2014-07-25

Links: 2014-07-25

News links for 25 Jul 2014

Read more ›
QE is fiscal policy

QE is fiscal policy

By Frances Coppola A new paper by Johnston and Pugh of the legal department of the University of Sheffield discusses the legality and the effectiveness of QE and its relatives, including the ECB’s OMT “whatever it takes” promise. The background to this is the German Constitutional Court’s ruling that OMT amounts to monetary financing of government deficits and is therefore […]

Read more ›
The EU weighs level three sanctions on Russia just as the European economy improves

The EU weighs level three sanctions on Russia just as the European economy improves

This is a long-form post on Ukraine. The big news, however, is from the European Union where the PMIs and a slew of other economic data came out today. The data showed the European economy improving broadly from its weakened recovery status. This will give the ECB room to take a wait and see approach. At the same time, the EU foreign ministers met yesterday and, according to reports are ready to impose heavier sanctions on Russia in the wake of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine. There’s a lot data to digest here so let me start off with the EU – Ukraine – Russia narrative.

Read more ›
Links: 2014-07-24

Links: 2014-07-24

News links for 24 Jul 2014

Read more ›
Apple’s shift into China shows the company’s masterful execution

Apple’s shift into China shows the company’s masterful execution

Apple’s Q3 2014 earnings report yesterday was a mixed bag in terms of actual results. But from my perspective the results show a company that continues to execute its strategy well given the onslaught from cheaper handsets using the Android operating system. Apple posted a smaller-than-expected 6% gain in quarterly revenue due to sluggish growth in saturated markets in Europe and North America. But revenue in China surged 28% despite Apple’s premium pricing. Apple’s growth days are over in developed markets. But I have been upbeat about Apple’s results because of the China strategy and this report shows that Apple’s growth has some momentum, mainly because of that market. Some figures and comments below.

Read more ›
Links: 2014-07-23

Links: 2014-07-23

News links for 23 Jul 2014

Read more ›
Ukraine, US subprime and the erosion of US financial hegemony

Ukraine, US subprime and the erosion of US financial hegemony

Ukraine will have global impact
More sanctions are coming but will be somewhat limited
The global financial system is moving away from the US
US auto subprime is going to blow up

Read more ›