volatility

Markets were down today, sending the US market to its worst loss since June. Given that I have been writing about downside market risk, I thought I would make a few comments. First, let me say that one bad day isn't a big deal. In fact,…

This is an update to yesterday's post about the inability of safe asset holdings to mitigate downside risk during equity drawdowns. As you know, I believe we are about to enter a potentially volatile period in the markets in September and…

There's no dominant theme I want to discuss today. But, there is a lot of news flow. So I thought it would be a good time to take stock of what's happening in the economy and financial markets, without presenting an overarching theme. Some…

I have been studying up on what epidemiologists are saying about the coronavirus. And, right now, there seem to be two divergent outcomes for how the Covid-19 outbreak develops. And there also seem to be two potential approaches to dealing…

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirts with a 500 point decline, it's worth mentioning the flight to safety going on in the global bond markets. We are seeing major moves into sovereign bonds across currency areas. That has the US…

As Wednesday begins, the question has to be: is the slowdown temporary or is it going to be more pronounced? And if it is pronounced, what do central banks do?

I have been meaning to write this post for a few days. And as the information comes in from Brazil, from China, from equity markets, it seems all the more compelling that this is indeed an important period in market and economic history. I…

The Absolute Return Letter, July 2015 “In a world that is changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.” Mark Zuckerberg Greece on the brink A Greek, an Irishman and a Portuguese walk…

At 2PM ET today, the Federal Reserve is releasing the latest FOMC statement. Market players do not expect the Fed to taper its large scale asset purchase program because recent economic data in the US have been weak. Given controversial…

The sharp jump in China's short-term rates has been nearly reversed. Repo rates are approaching their longer-term averages, with the PBoC coming to its senses and addressing the liquidity squeeze.