The US Treasury yield curve has resumed the flattening that caused bond markets worry last Fall. This is a negative signal for future growth. Curve flattening signals Fed tightening. With the primary risk overtightening. I expect a…
It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…
The big news today is Donald Trump's sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Is the confrontational path that Donald Trump is choosing a precursor to an economic shock? Irrespective, I expect elevated volatility to remain a feature…
There is no indication that average hourly earnings are moving sustainably higher. And therefore, there is no indication that average hourly earnings have any inflationary consequences.
We are not at full employment. Don't give up on the people who have dropped out of the labor force. There are jobs waiting for them, if we allow this thing to run.
The Fed as the monopoly supply of reserves can and will push the market until it cries uncle. Powell's testimony before Congress is the Fed Chairman's first warning shot. Caveat emptor.
A big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.
The short vol trade may now be over. Bond yields will again reach levels that causes angst for equity markets. And equities will tumble. Rinse and repeat.
Non-farm payrolls were up 200,000 versus 180,000 expected and average hourly earnings were up 2.9% on the year