James Montier reveals data showing everyone knows stocks are overvalued. But they act as if they believe they can get out before the bottom falls out. This will end badly when the market stalls out.
Tag: United States
Low interest rates in the UK show how powerful expectations of future central bank policy action is on bond markets given rising inflation.
While the consensus narrative fears of rising inflation triggered equity sales has much to recommend itself, there is a major discrepancy.
The short-term solution reached last month to extend the US federal government’s funding expires on Thursday.
The Atlanta Fed updated its nowcast model today with the ISM results we reported earlier. The numbers are big.
With Donald Trump set to give his State of the Union address, Democrats and Independents have gone from positive in 2017 to negative in 2018, while Republicans have gone in the other direction.
Gallup has done a deeper dive into the data in its latest poll, which I highlighted last night. The numbers show small businesses content with the state of the economy, giving the Trump Administration high marks in this area.
Small business optimism is at a 10-year high on the eve of the latest US GDP report – another bullish indicator. Inflation is the key to how this impacts bonds longer-term.
What will stop the dollar’s sell-off is not officials. It is not the likelihood of a Fed hike. Rather the market will exhaust itself.
Probably not. As Mnuchin and President Trump have done before, a distinction was drawn between short- and longer-term perspectives.
If China wants to accumulate reserves, it will have to buy US Treasuries, even if not every month. Japanese institutional investors are thought to be attracted by the high yields available in the US Treasury market. But, the wider differentials at short-end make hedging the currency risk more expensive
Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 220,000 in the week ending January 13 underscore the strength of the US job market. With the 4-week moving average decreasing to 244,500, there is no sign on the horizon of disruption to jobs.