Tag: recession

The Latvian financial crisis

The Latvian financial crisis

In the 2008-9 crisis, Latvia suffered more than any other country despite its extensive bank reforms after the 1995 crisis. Yet only one of its banks failed (Parex): the rest were bailed out by their foreign owners. So the question is, if Latvia’s banks were actually in better shape than those in other countries, why did Latvia suffer the worst recession in the world? To be continued……

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

This is an abbreviated post from our subscription series at Credit Writedowns Pro. Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events to which […]

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-28

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-28

The West has accepted Crimea’s annexation and will likely only increase sanctions if Russia goes further The Ukraine – IMF deal will put the Ukrainian economy through the wringer Russia’s economy is going to tank due to capital flight Brazil’s economy is in jeopardy of recession The US is doing ok but not great as data have improved The Fed’s […]

What happens to banks’ balance sheets during a downturn?

What happens to banks’ balance sheets during a downturn?

Credit underwriters pride themselves in their ability to cut lending when they sense that economic fundamentals have changed for the worse. For example one often hears bankers talking about passing on deals in 2007 because of “not liking the fundamentals” or “the markets looked stretched”. But historical data suggests otherwise.

Why I am relatively upbeat about Europe

Why I am relatively upbeat about Europe

I continue to anticipate a recovery in Europe in the second half of this year. The manufacturing PMI data that were released this morning suggest we could be in recovery before the end of the quarter. This makes me relatively upbeat about the medium-term. However, problems remain.