Tag: recession

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-28

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-28

The West has accepted Crimea’s annexation and will likely only increase sanctions if Russia goes further The Ukraine – IMF deal will put the Ukrainian economy through the wringer Russia’s economy is going to tank due to capital flight Brazil’s economy is in jeopardy of recession The US is doing ok but not great as data have improved The Fed’s […]

What happens to banks’ balance sheets during a downturn?

What happens to banks’ balance sheets during a downturn?

Credit underwriters pride themselves in their ability to cut lending when they sense that economic fundamentals have changed for the worse. For example one often hears bankers talking about passing on deals in 2007 because of “not liking the fundamentals” or “the markets looked stretched”. But historical data suggests otherwise.

Why I am relatively upbeat about Europe

Why I am relatively upbeat about Europe

I continue to anticipate a recovery in Europe in the second half of this year. The manufacturing PMI data that were released this morning suggest we could be in recovery before the end of the quarter. This makes me relatively upbeat about the medium-term. However, problems remain.

Europe: On Britain’s forcing through austerity at the EU level

Europe: On Britain’s forcing through austerity at the EU level

In the links this morning, I linked to a Handelsblatt interview with the head of Austria’s social democratic EU parliamentarians. The overall gist of his comments were that he believed the EU budget was ‘catastrophic’ because it was in deficit. However, he was arguing for additional revenue to support better infrastructure and increased employment. This is the standard social democratic political position in both Austria and Germany. But, as the EU budget wrangling has begun it is the intervention for austerity by British Prime Minister David Cameron that has won the day.

The sequester will happen

The sequester will happen

My thesis these past few years is that a fiscal retrenchment to reduce deficits in the US was likely to lead to a shortened business cycle. I have been saying since 2013 began that politics favoured the United States going into austerity mode this year because deficit hawks have finally been able to galvanize support for their framing of the fiscal debate. Increasingly, this appears to be an accurate view.