oil

Later today, I am talking to Ash Bennington, my friend and colleague at Real Vision, on our Daily Briefing about what's going on in the market and the economy right now. And I'd like to use this note at Credit Writedowns to help me collect…

At the end of April, I wrote a bullish piece centered on an economic snapback after the re-opening, in large part because of pervasive bearish sentiment. I called it "Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business".…

Today's newsletter is going to be more of a potpourri from the international economic and market news flow than a theme-specific post. Before I proceed, let me say a few words about the dire sentiment associated with this pandemic. Negative…

There's no dominant theme I want to discuss today. But, there is a lot of news flow. So I thought it would be a good time to take stock of what's happening in the economy and financial markets, without presenting an overarching theme. Some…

I woke up in the middle of last night. And I checked my phone really quickly. I know I shouldn't do it. Studies say it's bad sleep hygiene. But I couldn't help myself. I was on edge about all of the market volatility and I needed to know…

I'm a macro guy. So you're not coming to Credit Writedowns for trades. But this macro idea - that the US is not going to stay a net exporter of energy for long - came from a trade idea over a month ago. So, let me take you my thinking on…

We are now getting the first data points which will inform the increasing disconnect between a rebound in shares and the freefall in the real economy. And, after yesterday's rally in share prices, we are seeing a risk-off tone to the market…

When I was thinking about writing this post earlier in the weekend I was only going to stress the GDPNow number. And the point was to reiterate how well the US economy was doing pre-coronavirus. And then I was going to make the abrupt…

Somewhere in the Credit Writedowns archive are comments regarding US President Trump to the effect that political economy shocks won't matter. So I want to share a quick anecdote with you on why I have never put too much stock in the…

Like yesterday, I have a few thoughts on the economic headlines below. This one is behind the paywall though and I am going to focus mostly on two topics. Yield curve inversion At its worst yesterday, the risk-off play saw the 10-year…