Tag: Niels Jensen

Random Shots (Absolute Returns Partners Edition)

With so much going on at the moment and so many themes fighting to claim the main market discourse, I am in the mood for some random shots. First of all and to my continuing regret I have never actually got to thank Niels C. Jensen from Absolute Return Partners for the nice coverage I got way back in October […]

The Age of Deleveraging

The Age of Deleveraging

John Mauldin’s latest is about deleveraging and how this secular trend will drive the macro picture in 2010. The question is why? Read and find out. Also see A conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio for another good commentary on this topic. John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free Thoughts From the Frontline […]

Mental Midgets and Moral Pygmies

Mental Midgets and Moral Pygmies

The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners.  You can reach the firm  by email at info@arpllp.com. I have arrived at the fourth and final letter in our series about macro themes likely to […]

Video: Fitch downgrades Greece to BBB+ as violence erupts

Greece has been downgraded by Fitch Ratings to BBB+ over concerns about its budget deficit. Despite the cut, Fitch maintained a negative outlook on the country’s ratings, meaning it could fall further in the near future.  This action highlights how the real sovereign debt crisis is in Europe not in Dubai. The ratings agency said: The downgrade reflects concerns over […]

Time to Cut Taxes?

Time to Cut Taxes?

The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners. You can reach the firm by email at info@arpllp.com. This post on taxes and budget deficits should remind one of three recent posts here which take […]

The Hamster on the Wheel

The Hamster on the Wheel

This latest monthly missive is on dwindling energy supplies – known as Peak Oil, something Edward has talked about before. The parabolic rise and collapse in oil prices we saw last year was not just about speculation, it was about peak oil and dwindling cheap natural resources.  this essay gives a complete treatment of the issue in the analysis below. […]

Make Sure You Get This One Right

Make Sure You Get This One Right

The Absolute Return Letter, July 2009 “You can’t beat deflation in a credit-based system.”-Robert Prechter The great debate As investors we are faced with the consequences of our decisions every single day; however, as my old mentor at Goldman Sachs frequently reminded me, in your life time, you won’t have to get more than a handful of key decisions correct […]

Green Shoots or Smoking Weed?

Green Shoots or Smoking Weed?

Asset bubbles are strange animals. Ideally, you would like to punch the air out of them relatively early before they become a real danger but, in practice, it is not quite so simple. Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan have actually both argued that asset bubbles cannot be detected and monetary policy should therefore not in any way be used to […]

The Fake Recovery

This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do with sustainability and all of the systemic issues still at play. Because the Obama administration has moved into deficit hawk mode so quickly, I see a double-dip (i.e. a second downturn in late 2010 or 2011) as more likely than not. Even if we avoid a double-dip, the U.S. economy will still be at stall speed for some time to come and that means that any recovery is likely to be a short one (three-four years tops).

Europe on the ropes

Europe on the ropes

The Absolute Return Letter March 2009 “Many of today’s policy proposals start from the view that “greed” and “incompetence” and “poor risk assessment” are the ultimate source of what went wrong. In fact, they were not the true cause at all. Moreover, even if they had been, it is fatuous to think that we will now create a post-crash generation […]

Do BRICs (and Germans) Eat PIGS?

Do BRICs (and Germans) Eat PIGS?

When the euro was introduced about ten years ago, the pessimists didn’t give it much chance of reaching its tenth anniversary. The euro, or so the argument went, was doomed from the outset because of the wide spread in economic performance and discipline amongst the member countries. At one end you had, and still have, the highly disciplined, but also […]