Yesterday, I wrote up a piece at the New York Times’ Room for Debate forum about the legacy that Tim Geithner left behind, given his recent memoir “Stress Test”. The question was : “Did the government miss a historic opportunity to reshape the financial system — or was its moderate approach correct?” I recommend you read the other answers from […]
Tag: media watch
I was reading a summary of Jeremy Grantham’s remarks in GMO’s recent quarterly analysis. And it occurred to me that a lot of what we see there is predicated on some embedded longer-term assumptions that I want to make clear. Grantham is talking about the potential, even likelihood of a bubble in equities by 2016. This has to worrying because it would usher in another period of deleveraging. But it also assumes that the real economy gets us through 2016 via expansion. Some thoughts below
Here is the video of an interview I did with Max Keiser on the situation in Europe. A lot of our discussion revolves around why the Germans actually do want a cohesive Europe but feel compelled to pursue the present policy path. We also discuss the advancing plan bail-in plans in Europe and the advent of wealth taxes as a talking point in the crisis.
I was on the Daily Ticker with Lauren Lyster talking about Japan yesterday. My view is that there is no material negative change in Japan’s sovereign debt outlook nor will there be in the medium term because of Abenomics. The video is at the bottom of this post. Before you watch it let me say a little bit about why I take this view on Japan and speak more generally about government debt and deficits. Mike Konczal wrote a post that is getting a lot of buzz on high deficits and Reinhart and Rogoff that will be a good jumping off point for discussion.
I was on BNN’s Headline with Howard Green yesterday talking about the Fed’s QE program. I said that QE would be tapered and I believe it will likely end at the end of this year if the economy does not slip into recession. This is the timetable I felt was likely when I last spoke to BNN about QE a couple of months ago when commenting on Bill Gross’ view that QE would last through at least 2013.
Just a quick note here – I was on Capital Account last night talking about what I expect to happen politically next year. I spelled out some of it in my last post on the US election and the Fiscal Cliff. But here is a more complete view that includes not just the fiscal cliff but some thoughts on the […]
I was on RT’s Capital Account on Friday night talking to Lauren Lyster about QE and the conversation moved more into the realm of fiat currency and government’s coercive taxing power. This is particularly relevant given arguments within Republican circles about returning the US to the gold standard. Last July I wrote a post about fiat money called “Government tax […]
I wrote a piece in the New York Times that appeared yesterday along with Mark Thoma and John Cochrane. The question was “Should the Fed Risk Inflation to Spur Growth?” My answer was that the Fed should always keep an eye on inflation as that is its mandate. But, at present, outside of food and energy prices that the Fed […]
I was on RT’s Capital Account on Monday afternoon, talking about the euro crisis yet again. The video is below but I have a few comments before you watch it. In the video, I say Europe can continue dithering for quite a while. There is no sense in making predictions about imminent euro zone destruction because Europe has a lot […]
I was on the Alyona Show panel these past two Mondays talking to Alyona and Reason’s Anthony Randazzo about the debt crises in the US and Europe. As much as we tried to find something we could disagree on, we ended up agreeing a lot in both cases. As to the root causes of both crises, in the US, it’s largely about private debt. In the euro zone though, it’s really a balance of payments problem.
I would submit then that the problem is the debt. This is true right across the developed economies. Until the debt is reduced, global growth will be slow and that makes economies susceptible to recession. As much as the President wants to deflect attention toward the disaster building in Europe, he should admit to himself that more needs to be done on household debts, incomes and jobs. A banking-centric policy response has caught up with us and we’ll just have to see if we can ride this one out.
Here’s the video from last night’s capital Account with Lauren Lyster and Demetri Kofinas. Everyone keeps acting like this crisis is about to boil over and take the world economy with it. It certainly could. More likely though, we will continue to get these repeated cycles of crisis, bailout, and liquidity infusions.