Tag: media watch

On Tim Geithner and my US bailout post-mortem

On Tim Geithner and my US bailout post-mortem

Yesterday, I wrote up a piece at the New York Times’ Room for Debate forum about the legacy that Tim Geithner left behind, given his recent memoir “Stress Test”. The question was : “Did the government miss a historic opportunity to reshape the financial system — or was its moderate approach correct?” I recommend you read the other answers from […]

Bubbles: Jeremy Grantham, Fingers of Instability and the Medium Term View

Bubbles: Jeremy Grantham, Fingers of Instability and the Medium Term View

I was reading a summary of Jeremy Grantham’s remarks in GMO’s recent quarterly analysis. And it occurred to me that a lot of what we see there is predicated on some embedded longer-term assumptions that I want to make clear. Grantham is talking about the potential, even likelihood of a bubble in equities by 2016. This has to worrying because it would usher in another period of deleveraging. But it also assumes that the real economy gets us through 2016 via expansion. Some thoughts below

On Japan’s widowmaker trade and Reinhart and Rogoff

On Japan’s widowmaker trade and Reinhart and Rogoff

I was on the Daily Ticker with Lauren Lyster talking about Japan yesterday. My view is that there is no material negative change in Japan’s sovereign debt outlook nor will there be in the medium term because of Abenomics. The video is at the bottom of this post. Before you watch it let me say a little bit about why I take this view on Japan and speak more generally about government debt and deficits. Mike Konczal wrote a post that is getting a lot of buzz on high deficits and Reinhart and Rogoff that will be a good jumping off point for discussion.

QE will end this year after tapering off in June

QE will end this year after tapering off in June

I was on BNN’s Headline with Howard Green yesterday talking about the Fed’s QE program. I said that QE would be tapered and I believe it will likely end at the end of this year if the economy does not slip into recession. This is the timetable I felt was likely when I last spoke to BNN about QE a couple of months ago when commenting on Bill Gross’ view that QE would last through at least 2013.

More on government tax coercion versus fiat money liberty

More on government tax coercion versus fiat money liberty

I was on RT’s Capital Account on Friday night talking to Lauren Lyster about QE and the conversation moved more into the realm of fiat currency and government’s coercive taxing power. This is particularly relevant given arguments within Republican circles about returning the US to the gold standard. Last July I wrote a post about fiat money called “Government tax […]

Germany is a first class passenger on the Euro Titanic

Germany is a first class passenger on the Euro Titanic

I was on RT’s Capital Account on Monday afternoon, talking about the euro crisis yet again. The video is below but I have a few comments before you watch it. In the video, I say Europe can continue dithering for quite a while. There is no sense in making predictions about imminent euro zone destruction because Europe has a lot […]

America’s slowdown is not about Europe, it’s about the debt

America’s slowdown is not about Europe, it’s about the debt

I would submit then that the problem is the debt. This is true right across the developed economies. Until the debt is reduced, global growth will be slow and that makes economies susceptible to recession. As much as the President wants to deflect attention toward the disaster building in Europe, he should admit to himself that more needs to be done on household debts, incomes and jobs. A banking-centric policy response has caught up with us and we’ll just have to see if we can ride this one out.