fiscal

The research presented below from the IMF from October 2010 "finds that fiscal consolidation typically reduces output and raises unemployment in the short term. At the same time, interest rate cuts, a fall in the value of the currency, and…

I flagged the inevitability of deficit fatigue as early as November 2008. I am sympathetic to the view that these deficits are an attempt to prop up excess credit growth and thus retard full recovery. But I also fear the consequences of a…

What happens on August 3rd if no debt ceiling negotiation is reached in the US. This column argues that Treasury could go around, not over the debt ceiling limit by using its constitutional authority to mint money.

I do not take the position that other writers on this blog do that Social Security and Medicare must be protected at all costs. In fact, as you can see above, I outlined very clearly two years ago what is happening politically right now.…

Felix Zulauf sees problems ahead because of private sector debt. Expansionary fiscal policy and deficit spending have allowed the real economy to cope while expansionary monetary policy has helped asset prices. Zulauf sees a pause in this…

It is not clear that there is a political consensus for a stand-alone tax holiday. There may be support for the stand-alone tax holiday as part of a larger corporate tax reform effort. If it is enacted, job growth and capital investment is…

Fear mongers want you to be scared to death that interest rates will skyrocket. As I have said many times in the past, long Treasury rates reflect inflation and interest rate expectations. Full stop. The default risk isn’t there since…

The larger question is the economy. If it improves from here, the President gets re-elected. If the debt ceiling and budget cut debates tank the economy, the Republicans will get the blame and Obama wins too. If the economy sours without a…

Even if the debt ceiling showdown ends without default, there will be more shutdown attempts when the federal budget comes up for review in the fall. Get ready for more gridlock – and a US sovereign debt ratings downgrade.

Right now, getting back to full employment should be the first priority. That would go a long way to reducing the deficit