Predicting the future of policy making has been and will continue to be key to understanding where this economy is headed – and by extension what your investment portfolio will do.
Tag: fake recovery
This is going to be a relatively long post. But I think it’s important. I have been meaning to update my thinking about the “Fake Recovery” which I heralded in early 2009 as the economy in the US began to turn. My view is that without policy support this recovery is now on its last legs.
Here, I want to review how we got here in the context of the banking system and what that means about the banking crisis right now.
I want to take you through how we got from the financial system’s "systemic insolvency" to bailouts to record profits and bonuses again in the span of two years. From the WikiLeaks cables as published in the Guardian today regarding a meeting with the US Ambassador to the United Kingdom and the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King on 17 […]
Peter Cecchini, chief strategist at BGC Financial, talks to Pimm Fox about the U.S. economy and consumer credit on Bloomberg Television’s "Taking Stock." He says that the 122% percent household debt to GDP ratio is well above the pre-1980 average of 60-80%. Just to get back to a 100% to GDP ratio, we need an additional $2 trillion of deleveraging. […]
I am starting a new list of articles on my reading list which point to the success of what Marshall Auerback calls "The Committee to Save Wall Street," with this Newsweek cover as a contrarian indicator. The point is that the propaganda machine is out in full force. We are likely to see some serious Recovery Triumphalism in the lead-up […]
Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times wrote a very important comment piece in today’s Financial Times. In it he said that central banks are targeting asset prices to avoid the brunt of cyclical downturns. This policy is inducing asset bubbles and creating a more volatile real economy with unpredictable negative consequences. I want to expand upon his comments here because […]
For the last few months I have been casting around looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my more bearish long-term outlook. I have found some, but not enough. If you recall, early this year, I stated that we are in depression, making the case for the ongoing downturn as a depression with a small ‘d.’ Nevertheless, I was […]
Back in April I told you I anticipated an uptick in GDP in part because of changes in inventories – massive change in the inventories. At the time, I thought I was going out on a limb by suggesting we could see positive GDP numbers in Q3 and Q4. However, this is now the consensus. My calculations were not aggressive […]
This September 2009 post still describes my general view on the U.S. economy. If I wrote it today, I would be more bearish medium-term because it is obvious that in 2010 fiscal and monetary policy will become less supportive of recovery. Political pressures to remove fiscal and monetary stimulus are too much to bear. As a result, I give a double dip recession slightly better odds than a multi-year recovery now. But the analysis framing my thinking is largely the same.
Right now many economists believe the US economy is poised for recovery. Even I believe the economy will recover by year’s end. But for the man in the street, things hardly look like a recovery right now. Harried by falling house prices, foreclosure and lost employment, the US consumer is over-indebted and has run out of gas. Ordinary Americans are […]
It has been my thesis for some time that we are seeing a secular change in consumption patterns in the United States. This will have grave implications for a world economy used to seeing the American consumer as an economic growth engine and consumer of first choice. Retail sales in the United States have fallen 10% since peaking in November […]
I have been taking a bit of a break as my trip to the Ontario’s Lake Country winds down. It’s a beautiful place. But, as Marshall Auerback and I were lamenting, it has become the Hamptons of Canada as everyone from Toronto is up here for the summer holidays. But, it has been relaxing. Since I came here, I have […]