ECRI

Growth in the ECRI weekly leading index fell further into negative territory. The growth rate for the week of June 11 weakened to -5.7%, down from -3.7% in the previous week, which had been the first negative reading in almost a…

At 10AM ET the The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its general economic index. The data were not good as the index came in at 8 for June down from 21.4 the previous month. Because numbers above zero signal economic growth, the…

John Hussman is out with his latest weekly and he discusses... the ECRI Leading Indicators of course. Everyone is talking about these numbers.  He is bearish, but as I have also noted the ECRI data are not yet predicting…

David Rosenberg is out with a good post that takes on the double dip theme that everyone is talking about.  As you would expect, he has a bearish spin. To the degree you want counterfactuals, I really like what Morgan Stanley has to…

This week's review post is a bit late since I have been spending all my time watching the World Cup. Like last week, I will put the review in narrative form with links to last week's posts embedded. The numbers were OK but... I think the…

What Happened To The GDII Meme? Early in 2009 I caught an article from the Canadian daily National Post about David Rosenberg and wrote up a post about it. Here's what the National Post wrote: Now, he predicts the carnage will…

We have been watching the change in the ECRI Leading indicators as a predictor of economic activity.  I have posted a few times on this, first in April, then again last month. All along the way, it has been the rate of change in the…

Lakshman Achuthan is a Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ECRI studies recessions and recoveries, forecasting economic and inflation cycle turns for all major market economies using a rigorous and objective…

I'm going to make a change to the week in review post and talk a little bit about the week that was and how the posts from the past week fit into those events. This was a big week of posting and all of the links in this post are from the…

I have been talking about "recovery fading" and the economy "rolling over" in the second half of this year. What I have been suggesting is that we will experience a slowing of growth to 1 or 2% in the second half of the…