Tag: ECRI

Where Achuthan does explicitly say the recession would begin in Q3 or Q4 2011

Where Achuthan does explicitly say the recession would begin in Q3 or Q4 2011

I would love to see ECRI explain why they have changed the date when they felt recession would begin and whether this means they were wrong in forecasting recession in 2011. yesterday, I said ” I don’t think Achuthan is changing his story in the least.” I can’t say that now. It certainly looks to me now like ECRI was wrong initially and that Achuthan has changed his timetable subsequently.

Is ECRI changing its story on predicting a US recession?

Is ECRI changing its story on predicting a US recession?

I have Bloomberg copy and a video of a recent performance by ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan on Tom Keene’s show. A lot of people have been pouring scorn on business cycle forecaster Achuthan because of his company’s recession forecast. I suspect most of it is driven by bulls annoyed by his downbeat forecast or by the media’s instinct for gotcha with prognosticators.

ECRI: The US is still headed for recession

ECRI: The US is still headed for recession

The economic data in the US has been somewhat better of late but the ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan argues that this is meaningless; you can’t repeal the business cycle. His view is that the indicators pointing to an end of cycle slowing into double dip are too well advanced for any policy response to have an appreciable impact.

Another Bear Market Trap

Another Bear Market Trap

The sharp rally off the October 4th intraday low of the S&P 500 is a result of the assumed prospect of a real plan to save the Euro and slightly improved U.S. economic numbers indicating that we may not be in a recession right now. In addition the market was probably oversold after its rapid plunge below the 1260-1370 trading zone. We think the market will soon be disappointed on both counts.

Is it Over Yet?

Is it Over Yet?

It was telling that, just as the ECRI and other notable research outfits decided to push the recession button on the US economy, the data flow became notably more positive. This could be a sign of the times, that the cycle is just too volatile for even capable analysts to call or it could simply be a blip in otherwise fundamental economic weakness that is here to stay for now. I have been working with and building economic models for a while and all I can say is that they are seldom 100% right and the margin of error is always there when analysts make calls. The key is your ability to make calls which are transparent and add value for decision makers when they are made.

Is the US headed for recession?

Is the US headed for recession?

Bottom line: I think we are in the technical recovery phase of a double dip recession that is a once in a generation period of balance sheet repair. To me, it’s a depression. Irrespective of what you call this thing we are living through, it is not good. Unemployment is sky high, wage growth is nowhere and we are still beset by crisis.