Post Tagged with: "economic data"

New Governments, Same Problems

New Governments, Same Problems

Markets failed to get a lasting boost from change in EZ governments; dollar broadly higher into open. Italy auction met with decent response, but higher yields nonetheless ; change in governments no panacea in EZ. Japan’s preliminary Q3 marks the end of the recession; Hungarian forint weakest currency on the day.

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David Rosenberg on the economic depression in the United States

David Rosenberg on the economic depression in the United States

David Rosenberg recently spoke to WealthTrack’s Consuelo Mack about prospects for the US economy. Rosenberg believes that upside to US economic growth will continue to be constrained by high levels of debt. Despite historic levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus, “no major economic indicator that measure the economy from employment to GDP to industrial production to real incomes has managed to get back to their prior cycle highs in late 2007”, notes Rosenberg. He believes that we are in a depression.

Video below

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Dancing with Contagion

Dancing with Contagion

Markets have shifted back to crisis mode amid uncertainty over Italian economic reforms. Three likely scenarios remain after Berlusconi’s upcoming departure; Italian 10-year above 7%. UK September trade data unexpectedly widened, on imports; China’s October CPI eases.

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Chart: Employment and Wage Trends in New York City (including on Wall Street)

Chart: Employment and Wage Trends in New York City (including on Wall Street)

Great data from from the BLS. The average annual wage in New York’s financial industry more than tripled from 1990 to 2009.

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Payroll Employment By Industry, October 2011

Chart of the Day: U.S. Payroll Employment By Industry, October 2011

A breakdown of Friday’s numbers with net loss and gain by key industry.

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Kicking the “Cannes'” Down the Road

Kicking the “Cannes'” Down the Road

Markets are cautiously optimistic ahead of Greek confidence vote, US payrolls and G20. US private payrolls expected to increase by 125k; Greek headlines still likely to drive price action. G20 unlikely to deliver much in terms of policy solutions; problems require national solutions.

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The German labour market miracle

The German labour market miracle

Jobs and the lack of them are top of the agenda for policymakers and increasingly groups of protestors gathered in the financial districts of New York, London, and elsewhere. Unemployment in these countries is in danger of reaching 10%. In Germany, however, unemployment is below 7%. Some hail it as a miracle. This column finds a scientific – and far less inspiring – explanation.

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Markets Await Cues From the Fed

Markets Await Cues From the Fed

Market sentiment modestly improves after most Asian stocks fall ; EFSF to delay €3bln bond sale. Greek cabinet endorsed referendum plan overnight; aims to win Friday’s confidence vote. FOMC unlikely to announce further asset purchases, forecast updates; soft PMIs in EMEA.

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October 2011 Manufacturing ISM misses estimates

October 2011 Manufacturing ISM misses estimates

ISM’s October 2011 Manufacturing report on Business came in at 50.8, a level just above contraction. Last month was 51.6.

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The Greek Tragedy Resurfaces

The Greek Tragedy Resurfaces

Greece’s decision to hold a referendum weighing on sentiment; global PMIs most softer thus far. EUR/USD has retracted half of its Oct. move in two days; Greek referendum increases disorderly default risk. US ISM manufacturing key report of North American session; Asian trade numbers focus of EMs.

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China PMI drops to lowest in 32 months

China PMI drops to lowest in 32 months

50.4 is the lowest number since early 2009, during the depths of the recession. So this number, shades above contraction, is a big deal. In fact, the sub-index for new (export) orders index is contracting, meaning slowing economic growth in the developed economies is now impacting China as well.

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Chicago PMI at 58.4 tells a mixed message

Chicago PMI at 58.4 tells a mixed message

In terms of business activity, the Chicago ISM highlighted the fact that order backlogs recovered from two months of contraction and that employment was the highest in six months, even while new orders erased half of September’s gain.

As any number above 50 shows expansion, this is generally good report. But the message is mixed because of the continued fall in the three-month moving average.

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